UK Energy Market Update: 20th - 24th October 2025
Gas Prices Rose 2% on Russian Sanctions
Both gas and power climbed this week as markets reacted to new US/EU sanctions and Norwegian supply disruptions
This Week's Verdict
The key takeaways in 30 seconds
Ready to lock in today's rates before they climb further?
Get Your Free Quote →② Today's Day-Ahead Prices (27 Oct)
This Week's Movement (Mon 20 – Fri 24 Oct)
Gas peaked Wednesday at 81.74p/th before settling Friday. Electricity fell Friday as Storm Benjamin brought higher wind generation.
Power: ↓ 25.29%
Power: ↓ 27.93%
Power: ↓ 36.69%
💡 The story: Today's electricity spike (+25%) is temporary – caused by lower wind generation yesterday. Gas ticked up slightly (+1%) but remains well below September and last year. Overall, energy is significantly cheaper than 2024, making now a good time to review renewal options.
③ What's Driving Prices
🔴 US/EU Sanctions on Russian Energy
What happened: Rosneft & Lukoil targeted Wednesday
Impact: NBP spiked 2% on supply concerns (recovered by Friday)
❄️ Cold Snap Forecast
What happened: Temps 2°C below normal next week
Impact:+5mcm heating demand already signaled mid-week
🔧 Norwegian Disruptions
What happened: Langeled maintenance + Asgard outage
Impact:-10.5mcm lost supply, recovered Thursday
How Forward Contracts Moved This Week
This is what matters for your renewal quote. Here's how the actual contract prices your supplier will quote evolved this week:
| Date | Gas Cal-26 (p/th) | Change | Power Cal-26 (£/MWh) | Change | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 20 Oct | 78.74 | — | 76.12 | — | Week opens |
| Tue 21 Oct | 79.40 | +0.84% | 76.28 | +0.21% | Outages announced |
| Wed 22 Oct | 81.50 | +2.65% | 79.11 | +3.71% | Sanctions spike |
| Thu 23 Oct | 80.45 | -1.29% | 77.89 | -1.54% | Stabilizing |
| Fri 24 Oct | 80.50 | +0.06% | 76.75 | -1.46% | Norwegian flows return |
Minor Support Factors:
- Strikes at French LNG terminals (Fos and Montoir) limiting regasification capacity
- Lower wind generation early in the week increasing gas-for-power demand
The result? NBP Nov-25 climbed from 79.50p/therm (Mon) to peak at 81.74p/therm (Thu) before settling at 80.95p/therm (Fri) – roughly +2% for the week despite the Friday pullback as Norwegian flows returned.
④ Forward Markets (Your Renewal Rates)
These are the prices that matter for your contract renewal. Each card shows what energy will cost if you lock in now for that time period.
How to read these: Gas is shown in pence per therm (p/th), power in pounds per megawatt hour (£/MWh). The numbers below show how much prices changed this week – positive means they went up, negative means they went down.
📈 Trend Alert: All Forward Contracts Up This Week
Every contract period rose – from short-term (November) through long-term (full year 2026). This shows the market expects sustained higher prices, not temporary spikes. If you're renewing within the next 3 months, waiting risks paying significantly more. Lock in today's rates now.
⚠️ All contracts rose this week. Every single contract period increased – from November through to next year. This tells us the market expects higher prices to continue, not just for a day or two. If you're renewing soon, locking in now protects you from further increases.
⑤ Week Ahead Outlook
What to watch next week:
📉 Potential Downward Pressure
- Higher wind generation: Storm Benjamin bringing strong winds to NW Europe through mid-week, reducing gas-for-power demand. Wind speeds forecast 2-3 degrees above seasonal normal.
- Norwegian flows recovering: Maintenance completed at Dvalin and Oseberg. Langeled flows expected to return to full capacity (72.7mcm/day) by Monday.
- Milder temperatures: Forecast shows temperatures returning to 2-3 degrees above seasonal normal by end of next week, reducing heating demand.
📈 Potential Upward Pressure
- Geopolitical uncertainty: Markets watching for EU sanctions implementation details. Any escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions could trigger another spike.
- Indian demand shift: Indian buyers may pivot away from Russian supply following sanctions, competing with European buyers for LNG cargoes.
- Fos LNG strike extended: French terminal strike now extended 5 more days (through 29 Oct), reducing regasification capacity by ~89mcm.
- US government shutdown: Now one of the longest in history, creating uncertainty around energy policy and LNG export approvals.
What this means: We expect some prices to fall in the near term as Norwegian supply comes back online and wind power increases. But the sanctions create reasons for prices to stay higher than before. Any new supply problems would likely push prices up again.
💡 Action for buyers: If you're renewing in the next 3 months, this week's levels (80-81p/th for gas, £76-77/MWh for power) look attractive compared to the potential upside risk. For those with more time, set price alerts and be ready to act if we see a dip back toward 78-79p/th.
When Should You Renew?
Not sure which category you're in?
Get a Free Renewal Strategy Call →⑦ Key Data & Supply/Demand
Week's Price Range
- Gas (NBP Cal-26): Low 78.74 p/th (Monday) | High 84.73 p/th (Thursday)
- Power (UK Cal-26): Low 76.12 £/MWh (Monday) | High 76.75 £/MWh (Friday)
- Volatility: Gas saw 7.5% intra-week swing, highest in 3 weeks
Supply & Demand Snapshot (Friday 24 Oct)
LNG Arrivals in NW Europe (This Week)
- 10 cargoes arrived at NW European terminals
- Primary origins: United States (6 cargoes), Qatar (2), Nigeria (1), Russia (1)
- Fos terminal strike: Reduced sendout to zero for 3 days, impacting French supply
- Total weekly LNG:~1,050 mcm regasified across all NW European terminals
Norwegian Pipeline Status
- Langeled: 64.6mcm/day (below 72.7 capacity due to maintenance, recovering Monday)
- Vesterled: 8.0mcm/day (normal)
- Troll maintenance: Completed Friday, flows returning to normal
- Asgard outage: Unplanned, reduced output by 10.5mcm Thursday
Other Commodities
- Brent Crude:$65.99/bbl (↑5.4% week-on-week) on sanctions news
- Coal (ARA CIF Cal-26):$102.98/t (↑1.3%)
- Carbon (EUA Dec-25): €78.44/t (↓1.4%)
- UK ETS Dec-25: €63.47/t (↓0.7%)
📊 Need help interpreting this data? Our energy consultants can walk you through what these numbers mean for your specific business and renewal timeline. Get a free consultation →
Quick Answers in Plain English
Don't Wait for Prices to Rise
Forward contracts are up this week across all periods. Lock in today's rates before they climb further.
Stay ahead of the market
Get weekly insights, live pricing updates, and actionable timing advice — straight to your inbox.
📅Weekly updates
📊Live forward price
💡Renewal guidance
Why subscribe? Markets move fast. Our weekly snapshots help you stay informed and seize the right moment to renew — without the noise.
Privacy first: We'll never spam or share your details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Explore More Insights
Dive into more energy updates, market reports, and supplier insights tailored for your business
Found this helpful? Share it with your network
