UK Energy Market Update: 2nd - 6th Feb 2026
Gas and power drop 9% on warmer weather hopes
Get quotes now while prices are down from last week's highs. The market still expects cheaper rates ahead, but ongoing Iran tensions and potential cold snaps in mid-February could push prices back up quickly.
💡 The market expects much cheaper prices ahead, but geopolitics and weather scares can still cause quick jumps
📊 This Week vs Last Week
Both gas and power fell around 9% as weather fears eased from Monday's highs
🔍 What Moved the Market
What Happened This Week
Gas fell 8.5% to 76.58p and power dropped 9.5% to £72.75 after Monday's weather scare eased. Early fears of a severe cold snap shifted to expectations of milder weather, though a brief cold spell is still expected mid-February. Iran-US tensions kept prices jumpy all week, with oil hitting $70 before pulling back.
The Full Story
Key Days
Weather models suggested severe cold snap coming, pushing prices to weekly highs
Models shifted cold weather to late February/March, causing major selloff
Market still nervous about weather and Iran talks scheduled for weekend
Forward Prices
The market is clearly betting on much cheaper energy ahead - 2027 contracts are 13% below current rates and even next winter is barely above today's prices. This suggests traders expect Iran tensions to ease and storage issues to resolve, though the relatively small discounts for winter periods show ongoing concerns about supply security.
When Should You Buy?
March contracts fell nearly 14% this week but are still slightly above current rates. The big drop suggests the worst fears have passed, so lock in these lower rates before any new scares hit.
Spring rates are just below current prices and falling. The market expects things to calm down by then, but Iran tensions and potential cold snaps could still cause spikes. Worth getting quotes ready.
Summer contracts are showing decent savings versus today's rates and are still falling. The market clearly expects much calmer conditions by summer, though storage injection demand could provide some support.
Next winter is barely above current rates despite being a year away, showing real concerns about storage levels. These rates are falling but slowly - worth locking in given the storage worries ahead.
2027 contracts are much cheaper than today's rates, suggesting the market expects all current problems to resolve. No rush here, but storage concerns mean don't leave it indefinitely.
👀 Looking Ahead
Watch Iran-US talks this weekend and any updates on the potential mid-February cold spell. Storage levels and Norwegian gas flows will become increasingly important as we head deeper into winter. Weather forecasts remain the biggest driver of day-to-day moves.
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Current rates: Gas 76.58p/kWh · Power £72.75/MWh
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