UK Energy Market Update: 16th - 20th Feb 2026
Gas up 8% as US-Iran talks collapse
Get quotes now. Prices jumped 8% this week as US-Iran talks failed and geopolitical tensions rose. Future contracts are still cheaper than today's rates, but that gap is closing fast as prices climb.
💡 The market still expects prices to fall long-term, but geopolitical risks are eating into those discounts
📊 This Week vs Last Week
Both gas and power rose sharply, with gas leading the way up
🔍 What Moved the Market
What Happened This Week
Gas rose from 74.75p to 80.77p (+8.1%) and power climbed from £69.73 to £72.49 (+4.0%). Started the week falling on mild weather forecasts, but Friday's geopolitical tensions sent prices jumping. Brent crude hit 6-month highs above $70 as US-Iran talks collapsed and military deployments increased.
The Full Story
Key Days
Mild weather forecasts and strong wind generation pushed prices to their lowest point
US-Iran talks collapsed and military tensions escalated, sending oil and gas prices soaring
Forward Prices
The market still expects prices to fall - 2027 contracts at 70p are 13% cheaper than today's 80.77p. But geopolitical tensions are eating into those discounts fast, with some contracts now rising faster than others.
When Should You Buy?
March contracts are now more expensive than today's rates and rising fast. If you're renewing next month, lock in quotes immediately - waiting could cost you more.
Q2 rates jumped 7.6% but are still slightly below current prices. The market expects some easing by spring, but geopolitical risks are shrinking that discount. Get quotes now before they catch up.
Summer contracts rose 7.5% but remain below today's 80.77p. The market still expects prices to ease by summer, but that gap is shrinking fast. Worth securing quotes now while there's still a discount.
Winter rates are above current prices and rising - reflecting typical seasonal heating demand. If you're looking at winter renewals, lock in quotes now as cold weather premiums are likely to grow.
2027 contracts still offer a decent discount to today's prices despite rising 4.3%. The market expects prices to settle lower once current geopolitical tensions ease. You could wait, but keep an eye on how fast this discount is shrinking.
👀 Looking Ahead
Watch for any developments in US-Iran tensions and whether oil prices can hold above $70. Weather forecasts still show mild conditions ahead, but geopolitical risks are now driving the market more than fundamentals.
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Current rates: Gas 80.77p/kWh · Power £72.49/MWh
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