Middle East Conflict Escalates: What This Means for Your Energy Renewal

Why Rising Tensions Could Push Energy Prices Higher — And Why Timing Your Renewal Matters

🌍 The Situation Has Entered a New Phase

Since our last blog, events in the Middle East have intensified dramatically:

• The United States has now conducted direct military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
• Iran has issued strong warnings, threatening to widen its military response.
• The Strait of Hormuz — which handles nearly 20% of global oil shipments — remains open, but is now firmly under the spotlight.
• Oil and gas traders are watching developments closely, with some early pre-positioning already happening.



While the worst-case scenario (a full closure of Hormuz) has not yet occurred, the risks have materially increased.

📉 Where Are Prices Right Now?

UK Forward Gas Prices (as of 23 June 2025):

UK Forward Power Prices:

In short:

• Prices have risen sharply over the past week.
• Winter contracts are now firmly above 110 p/th for gas and approaching 100 £/MWh for power.
• Traders are building in a growing risk premium but not yet pricing full crisis levels.

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🌟 Why This Escalation Matters to UK Energy Buyers

Even though the UK does not directly import oil or gas from Iran, global markets are highly interconnected:

• Hormuz disruption would immediately hit oil & LNG shipping flows, with ripple effects across Europe.
• Higher oil prices drive up wider inflation and energy generation costs.
• Even limited interference in shipping lanes could trigger rapid speculative spikes in wholesale prices.



We saw exactly how fast markets can turn during the 2022 Ukraine invasion. Right now, the physical supply remains flowing, but the risk premium is rising.

🔫 The Critical Triggers to Watch:

🧭 We're Not Here to Scare You — We're Here to Inform You

At Smart Energy Company, we believe business owners deserve facts — not fear.

Yes, global events are creating serious risks in energy markets. But rather than using scare tactics, we provide clear, transparent updates based on real market data — so you can make informed decisions with confidence.

Don’t rely on broker scare stories or “act now or else” pressure.

Instead:
✅ Get the facts.
✅ Understand the risks.
✅ Time your contract properly based on actual market movements.

That’s why we publish Daily Market Updates — giving you up-to-date insights on UK gas, power and oil prices, with simple plain-English commentary.

Daily, weekly or monthly — no pressure, just facts.

🔜 What Should Businesses Do Right Now?

"Markets don’t always react instantly to headlines. But when they do turn, it happens fast."

For businesses with contracts expiring within the next 6-12 months:



• This is a crucial review window.
• Prices are elevated but manageable.
• If conflict escalates further, your ability to secure lower pricing may disappear quickly.

For those further out:

• Keep monitoring regularly.
• Stay flexible and aware of price movements.
• Be prepared to act if new disruptions hit.

📅 Final Thoughts

The energy market is now pricing growing risk, but not yet panic. However, each new headline increases the chance of sudden price shocks.

Our advice remains clear:

• Don’t assume today’s pricing will hold if the conflict worsens.
• Review your renewal position early.
• Take advantage of market stability while it's still available.



We monitor 28+ suppliers daily, tracking both wholesale markets and supplier-specific offers.

✅ Let’s Help You Take the Guesswork Out of It

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Don’t wait for a crisis. Plan with confidence — today.

Stay informed. Stay ahead. Avoid panic decisions.