What Changed This Week
Temperatures fell 6°C below seasonal normal, heating demand surged to 349mcm (+87mcm vs seasonal), and forward contracts rose in response. The market repriced cold from "shock event" to "confirmed structural winter reality." Prices climbing means urgent action: lock your renewal now before rates spike further into December.
The Data
Cold deepened mid-week (coldest through 21 Nov). System demand hit 349mcm on 21 Nov—87mcm above seasonal normal. Storage withdrawals accelerated. Market repriced cold as structural winter feature, driving prices UP across all contracts. Dec-25 gas averaged 82.21p this week (up +1.67% from last week). Q1-26 gas at 82.01p (up +0.77%). This rise is the story—market confirmed heating demand locked in through winter, supply adequate but stretched, pricing reflects the cost. Lock now before December panic drives rates higher still.
What This Means for Your Renewal
Earlier (10–14 Nov), spot crashed 9.8% mid-week but forwards barely moved. This week, forwards rose (+0.34–2.86%) as cold confirmed and heating demand locked in structural. Translation: market repriced cold as permanent winter reality, not temporary panic. Prices will likely spike further in December as year-end buyer rush hits. This validates locking renewals immediately—delay means paying higher rates as panic premium kicks in.
Forward Market Movers: Recovery from Week-10 Lows
Forwards rebounded from week-10 panic lows as market repriced cold as structural and supply as adequate. Here's the week-by-week progression showing market repricing:
5-Day Forward Contract Movement
Track how forward prices responded to cold confirmation. Recovery from week-10 lows shows market repricing heating demand as structural winter feature rather than temporary panic.
What Moved Prices This Week
βοΈ Cold Extended (Now Structural)
6°C below seasonal normal through 21 Nov. Earlier in week (10–14 Nov) treated as shock. This week repriced as winter reality. Storage withdrawals accelerated (positive outflow), confirming heating load is real and structural, not temporary event.
π Demand Surged (Heating Confirmed)
System demand hit 349mcm on 21 Nov—87mcm above seasonal normal. This confirmed heating load is locked in through winter. Market repriced heating requirement as permanent winter feature, driving prices UP. Dec-25 and Q1-26 now priced as structural winter demand—rates rising as market confirms severity.
π’ Supply Held Strong
Norwegian flows (Langeled 70+ mcm/d), LNG send-out (95–96 mcm/d), and storage (80.71%) all proved adequate despite demand surge. Supply infrastructure showed no scarcity signals even under harsh conditions. This kept forwards anchored and prevented panic repricing.
π¨ Wind Improving (Relief Ahead)
Forecasts showed wind recovering to seasonal normal by late Nov, then above seasonal by early Dec. This improving wind will ease pressure on prices eventually. But prices will spike further in December before wind relief arrives. Lock your renewal now to avoid the panic premium; spring easing won't help if you're renewing in Dec-Jan.
Lock Your Renewal: Today's Fair Values (24 Nov 2025)
This week repriced all contracts downward as heating demand confirmed structural. Here's where to lock based on your contract end date:
Why Each Contract Tier Makes Sense
Week move: +1.67% gas, +2.86% power | Last week: 80.85p / 81.01£
CRITICAL: Only 5 weeks to start. Prices jumped +2.86% power this week alone. December panic will drive them higher. Lock today before they spike further.
Week move: +0.77% gas, +0.72% power | Last week: 81.39p / 83.60£
Prices rising as winter demand confirmed. Lock by 5 Dec before year-end buyer panic drives rates higher. Wait until January and you'll pay significantly more.
Week move: −0.07% gas, +0.34% power | Last week: 77.69p / 75.47£
Cal-26 relatively stable, but context: near-term contracts spiking (Dec-25 +2.86%). Full-year blending offers certainty. Lock early December before December panic affects longer-term pricing too.
The Week in Summary
This Week's Move (17–21 Nov): All near-term contracts rose—Dec-25 up +2.86% power, +1.67% gas; Q1-26 up +0.72% power, +0.77% gas; Cal-26 essentially flat but holding. Market repriced heating demand as confirmed structural (349mcm +87 seasonal). Supply adequate (Norwegian 70+ mcm/d, LNG 95–96 mcm/d) but winter demand is locked in structural—prices rising as market prices winter reality.
Fair Values This Week: Dec-25 at 82.21p gas / 83.32£ power (UP from last week). Q1-26 at 82.01p gas / 84.19£ power (UP). Cal-26 at 77.64p gas / 75.73£ power (stable). Prices rising = urgency. Lock now before December panic amplifies the spike.
Why Lock Now vs Wait: Dec-25: 5-week deadline demands action. Prices up +2.86% this week, will spike further in December. Q1-26: lock by 5 Dec before year-end panic premium hits. Cal-26: near-term spikes will eventually pull longer-term pricing up too. Wait and you'll pay more.
Your Action: Match your contract end date to the card above and lock by 5 December. Cold is confirmed structural winter reality. Prices rising NOW. This is defensible hedging at current rates—the window is closing fast.
