UK Energy Market Update: 3rd - 7th November 2025
Quick navigation:
Wind Turned. Power Spiked. Forwards Held Steady.
Mid-week power surge showed the real story: stable LNG supply kept gas calm, but weak wind forecasts drove power 62% higher Thursday. Forwards ended the week steady—the signal, not the noise.
Mid-October saw sharp spikes (Power Day-Ahead topped ~105 £/MWh; Gas Day-Ahead ~82p/th), followed by a late-October pullback. Into the first week of November, forwards were broadly steady, while day-ahead prices were volatile but settling. The rest of this update separates the two clearly.
What Happened This Week (Day-Ahead): 3–7 Nov
Daily settlement prices and the story behind each move.
| Day | Gas (p/th) |
Power (£/MWh) |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 3 Nov | 73.15 | 54.24 | Post-lows. Mild weather begins. |
| Tue 4 Nov | 75.00 | 60.12 | Bounce. Technical buying; LNG arrivals confirmed. |
| Wed 5 Nov | 78.31 | 54.24 | Gas up; power flat. Wind forecasts begin to deteriorate. |
| Thu 6 Nov ⚡ | 77.30 | 87.81 | 🔴 POWER SPIKE. Wind collapse mid-week. +62% vs Wed. Gas held. |
| Fri 7 Nov | 75.60 | 83.67 | Week close higher for power; gas range-bound. |
Day-Ahead weekly averages (3–7 Nov): Gas 75.87p/th(−1.4% vs 27–31 Oct), Power £68.02/MWh(+5.1% vs 27–31 Oct). Thursday's power spike was driven by shifting wind output expectations; gas stayed in a tight band thanks to strong LNG supply.
Where Prices Stand (Day-Ahead)
Weekly averages vs last week and mid-October peak levels.
Read-through: Gas day-ahead is slightly below last week and well under mid-October highs. Power day-ahead rebounded on lower wind output during the week but remains far below the October spike. The trend is down; the noise is Thursday's blip.
What's Moving Prices
The four factors that shaped this week.
🚢 LNG Supply — Steady & Arriving On Time
Nine arrivals confirmed into NW Europe for the week; three more added mid-week (US & Nigeria). Norwegian Sleipner maintenance easing—flows stepping up. Result: gas had no excuse to spike. Kept downside pressure on Cal-26.
💨 Wind Forecast Collapsed (Mid-Week)
SEFE reports flagged "soft wind forecasts" for NW Europe into mid-November. Thursday (6 Nov), power spiked to £87.81/MWh—a 62% jump from Wednesday. Germany & Netherlands bore the brunt. More gas-fired gen needed = power premium locked in.
🌤️ Warmer Weather Forecasts Kept Demand Capped
Monday opened with "2–3 degrees above seasonal normal." Wednesday & Thursday saw fresh warmer revisions. This offset any demand surge. Gas never broke 78.31p/th; storage at 83.02%, stable since early October.
📰 US–China Trade Chatter (Backdrop, Not Driver)
Trump–Xi meeting early week sparked optimism on tariff rollbacks. LNG tariff questions remain, but market shrugged. Strong supply was enough to anchor gas. Oil recovered to ~64/bbl by week's end. Not the headline.
Bottom line on drivers: This wasn't a geopolitical crisis or supply shock. It was renewables forecasting(wind) moving power, and strong LNG supply keeping gas honest. That's stable, not scary.
What Could Change Prices Next Week?
Could Push Prices DOWN
- Benign weather: Mild conditions cap demand.
- Stable supply: Smooth LNG arrivals/pipeline flows.
- Strong renewables: Higher wind output softens power prices.
Could Push Prices UP
- Cold snap: Demand spike for heating.
- Supply hiccups: Any LNG/pipeline disruption.
- Weak wind output: More gas-fired generation required.
📈 Most Likely
Near-term forwards look broadly stable. Day-ahead should track weather/wind but, absent shocks, bias is sideways to slightly softer. Watch for wind forecast updates mid-week; if they stay soft, power premiums persist.
When Should You Renew?
🔴 Renewing in Nov–Dec
Lock in now. You're close to term and exposure to a cold snap or wind drought isn't worth the risk. Forwards are 3% below October highs—decent value.
🟠 Renewing Jan–Feb
Monitor for another week. If conditions stay benign and wind forecasts improve, there's modest downside. Otherwise, move quickly—don't get caught in a late-week shift.
🔵 Spring 2026+
Time is on your side. Keep watching forwards; consider phased hedging if volatility returns. Summer Cal-26 (~75p/th, £72/MWh) is well below winter.
✅ Bottom Line
Forwards were steady week-on-week ( Gas Cal-26 79.07p/th, Power Cal-26 £76.49/MWh). Day-ahead averaged 75.87p/th for gas (−1.4% WoW) and £68.02/MWh for power (+5.1% WoW), still far below mid-October extremes. No geopolitical shock. No supply crisis. Just stable supply meeting moderate demand. For Nov–Dec renewals: lock in. For Jan–Feb: wait one week.
Ready to lock pricing that fits your timing?
We'll benchmark quotes against the forward curve and day-ahead trends for your term.
No spin—just the numbers that matter.
Get Your Renewal Quote →Questions? We'll walk you through the data and timing.
Stay ahead of the market
Get weekly insights, live pricing updates, and actionable timing advice — straight to your inbox.
📅Weekly updates
📊Live forward price
💡Renewal guidance
Why subscribe? Markets move fast. Our weekly snapshots help you stay informed and seize the right moment to renew — without the noise.
Privacy first: We'll never spam or share your details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Explore More Energy Insights
Stay informed with the latest market updates, supplier news, and industry changes affecting your business
Read our latest energy market insights and expert analysis
Your weekly energy market summary and price movements
Comprehensive monthly energy market trends and forecasts
Current deemed rates and how to avoid expensive bills
Latest news from UK energy suppliers and market changes
Important regulatory and industry updates for businesses
Found This Helpful?
Share this insight with your business network
