October 2025 UK Energy Market Trends: Gas, Power & Oil
October: Volatility Masks Structural Downside
Forwards fell 2% despite geopolitical shocks and day-ahead crashes. The real story: pricing power down 44% vs. last year, gas 20% cheaper. Renewals are in better territory than they've been.
① The Month at a Glance
🎯 The Real Story
October saw forwards fall consistently (Cal-26 gas -2.03%, power -1.43%), but this masked wild day-ahead volatility. Mid-month geopolitical shocks (Gaza escalation, Russia sanctions) spiked day-ahead prices mid-week, but forwards traders didn't believe it. By month-end, day-ahead crashed 35% on Friday as supply improved and weather forecasts turned milder. Forwards stayed rational throughout.
Monthly Performance Summary
⚠️ Key Observation: Winter power (Q1-26) went UP (+1.49%) while full-year power (Cal-26) went down. This tells you traders believe winter 2026 will demand more power than summer averages. Seasonal heating will drive premium, but it's not as high as it could be—storage is full, supply is stable.
② Month Trend Analysis: Where Prices Moved
The Weekly Pattern
October followed a clear pattern: early stability, mid-month spike, late-month crash. Here's what happened:
| Week | Period | Cal-26 Gas | Cal-26 Power | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 01-03 Oct | 80.23 → 80.01 | 76.72 → 76.64 | Stable open. Mild weather, no shock |
| Week 2 | 06-10 Oct | 79.77 → 80.95 | 76.92 → 77.11 | UP mid-week- heating season demand visible |
| Week 3 | 13-17 Oct | 80.35 → 79.70 | 76.84 → 76.98 | PEAK on 13th- geopolitical fears, but fading |
| Week 4 | 20-24 Oct | 78.74 → 80.50 | 76.42 → 76.75 | Dip mid-week, spike on 24th (data anomaly day-ahead) |
| Week 5 | 27-31 Oct | 79.80 → 78.60 | 76.07 → 75.62 | BREAK LOWER- supply improves, weather turns mild |
What Drove Each Week
📘 Week 1: Baseline (1-3 Oct)
Stable open to October. Forwards were pricing in mild weather forecasts and normal autumn transition. No supply shocks. LNG was steady. This was the "default" market—no special narratives. Prices flatlined.
📙 Week 2: Demand Signal (6-10 Oct)
Forwards UP on 10th. Market starting to price heating season. Temperatures forecast to drop from mild to normal. Storage levels being monitored. This is when traders first started bidding winter contracts, creating the seasonal premium lift.
📕 Week 3: Geopolitical Peak (13-17 Oct)
13th Oct: Peak of the month for Cal-26 Gas (80.35). Israeli strikes on Gaza and Russia sanctions announced. Day-ahead crashed 35% Friday, but forwards peaked this week. Geopolitical risk premium visible. However, note that forwards then fell for the rest of the week—traders quickly decided this wasn't structural.
📙 Week 4: Consolidation (20-24 Oct)
Forwards oscillated. Another spike on 24th (geopolitical position unwinding?), but overall a consolidation week. Day-ahead had the massive anomaly crash on 24th (power 47 £/MWh), but forwards barely moved. This confirms: DA noise ≠ forward repricing.
📗 Week 5: Break Lower (27-31 Oct)
Finally, forwards broke lower. Norwegian supply returning. LNG ramping. Weather turning mild again. Geopolitical premium fading. This is when the month's true direction revealed itself: downside pressure from structural supply and weak demand.
③ October 2025 vs October 2024: A Dramatic Shift
October 2024 was a crisis month. October 2025 is a surplus month. The difference is stark.
Day-Ahead Comparison
The Story
- Last year (2024): Expensive, stable. Energy crisis fears still present. Prices consistently 95-108 p/th for gas. Winter premium was massive ($10-15/therm into winter months).
- This year (2025): Cheap, volatile. Supply abundant. Prices low (67-85 p/th), but day-to-day swings are 2-3x higher. Geopolitical noise moves DA heavily; forwards stay rational.
- Bottom line: If you renewed last October at £99/therm, today's average of £78.97 feels like a bargain. But if you're renewing now, don't get complacent—winter demand could still surprise.
💡 What This Means for Your November Renewals: Prices are structurally lower than last year, but volatility is higher. This suggests renewed geopolitical risk or supply disruption could spike prices quickly. If you're on the fence about renewing, use October's low prices as your baseline—if prices stay here or go lower, it's a buyer's market. If they spike toward 85-90, don't fight it; lock in.
④ Week-by-Week Deep Dive
Best & Worst Days to Renew in October
Looking at actual day-ahead spot prices (hindsight for next time):
The Lesson
If you'd renewed on 03/10 (gas low), you'd have locked in 67.83 p/th. If you'd renewed on 08/10 (gas peak), you'd have locked in 85.85 p/th. That's a 26.5% range in just 5 days. Similarly for power: 47 vs 105 = 124% range. This is why forwards matter more than day-ahead—forwards smooth out this noise and show the real market conviction, which by month-end was clearly downward.
⑤ November Outlook: What to Watch
The November Price Signal
Nov-25 contracts ended October at 77.77 p/th (gas), down from opening 80.55. This is steeper downside than Cal-26 (which only fell 2.03%). What's the market telling us? November will be cheaper than the full-year average.
Key Drivers to Monitor in November
🟢 Downside Pressure (Expect Lower Prices)
Norwegian Supply:
Maintenance wrapping up. Troll, Sleipner returning. Langeled flows strengthening. This is structural. Expect continued supply relief through November.
LNG Arrivals:
Currently 10+ cargoes/week. Competition strong. If this continues, expect further downside on storage fills.
Mild Weather Risk:
If forecasts hold 2-3°C above normal through November, heating demand stays suppressed. This is biggest downside catalyst.
🔴 Upside Risk (Watch for Rallies)
Geopolitical Tail Risk:
Gaza and Russia sanctions could escalate again. October proved DA responds fast to geopolitical news, even if forwards don't. Be ready for 2-3 day spikes.
Weather Surprise:
If early cold snap hits (colder than forecast), heating demand could spike. Power would react faster than gas.
Supply Disruption:
A major outage at Norwegian field or LNG terminal could tighten the market quickly.
November Renewal Strategy
- 0-3 months to renewal: Lock in now. November forwards suggest prices will drift lower, but don't fight the trend if rates today feel acceptable. You're close enough to benefit from locking in forward prices as insurance.
- 3-6 months to renewal: Wait, but set alerts. If Nov-25 breaks below 75 p/th, move within 48 hours. That would signal structural break and trigger buying panic.
- 6+ months to renewal: Wait for summer 2026 lows. Cal-26 Sum-26 is only 75.19—lower than Cal-26. If you can wait, seasonal summer rates are genuinely cheap.
⑥ Renewal Guidance: Your Next Steps
🎯 Executive Summary: October proved forwards (what the market truly believes) are more reliable than day-ahead noise (what traders liquidate positions on). Use Cal-26 as your baseline (78.60 gas, 75.62 power). If you can renew at these rates or lower, do it. If rates rise 5-10% above these, assess the news—it's likely geopolitical fear that could fade.
0-3 Months to Renewal
ACTION: Lock in NOW
You need to renew soon. Don't wait for November. Cal-26 at 78.60 is genuinely low—compare to Oct 2024 ~97. Lock in now and stop gambling.
Why: Even if November prices fall to 76, you're only 2% worse off. But if geopolitical risk flares and prices jump to 85-90, you'll regret not locking in today.
3-6 Months to Renewal
ACTION: Set Alerts & Wait
You have breathing room. Use October's lesson: forwards don't react to day-ahead shocks. Set price triggers and wait for the right moment.
Alerts:
• Gas Q1-26 breaks below 80 p/th
• Power Q1-26 breaks below 81 £/MWh
→ Move within 48 hours
6+ Months to Renewal
ACTION: Plan Summer Lock-In
You're in the sweet spot. Summer 2026 contracts (Sum-26) are genuinely cheap at 75.19 gas / 70.48 power—lower than the full-year average.
Strategy:
If you can wait until May/June, lock in summer rates and handle winter separately in Sept/Oct.
October Proved Something Critical
Day-ahead prices crashed 35% on a single Friday, but forwards held firm. The market knows what matters: supply, demand, and seasonality. Geopolitical shocks are noise. Lock in your renewals while forwards are telling you prices should be lower, not higher.
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