Our latest comprehensive analysis for your weekly energy market reports, crafted to illuminate the path for your business's energy decisions in the week of 15th to 22th April 2024.
Weekly Energy Market At A Glance
A week of volatility saw gas and electricity prices swinging in response to an array of supply and demand factors. Here’s a snapshot of where we stand:
Gas Prices:Â Opened the week at 77.00 p/th, reached highs of 83.59 p/th amidst geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, and moderated to a closing of 76.25 p/th as the new week began.
Electricity Prices: Varied significantly, starting at 37.00 £/MWh, peaking at 73.00 £/MWh due to fluctuating gas supply and demand, ending the week at 73.00 £/MWh.
Why Did Prices Change?
Weather Impact: Last week’s colder turn influenced higher heating demand, impacting both gas and electricity markets. However, forecasts for increasing wind speeds might lead to a drop in gas-for-power demand.
Supply and Demand Dynamics:Â Unplanned outages, such as the one at the Nyhamna gas plant, significantly tightened gas supplies, while international tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, introduced uncertainty that likely contributed to price fluctuations.
Looking Forward:
The market remains alert to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with potential impacts from the Iran-Israel conflict expected to influence energy markets further. As we move into the new week, cooler temperatures and continued geopolitical unrest could exert upward pressure on prices, although the resumption of normal operations at key facilities may help stabilise the market.
Next Week’s Outlook:
With the expected changes in weather and geopolitical landscape, energy prices might see varied movements. Continued attention will be necessary to navigate the upcoming shifts in the energy market effectively.
A Deeper Dive: Daily Dynamics
Monitoring the day-to-day fluctuations in energy prices is crucial for smart energy procurement. Over the last week, we've seen the market take a notable turn.
DAY AHEAD PRICES | Gas (pence per therm) | Electric (£ per MWh) |
15/04/2024 | 77.00 | 37.00 |
16/04/2024 | 83.59 | 71.40 |
17/04/2024 | 79.00 | 72.00 |
18/04/2024 | 80.75 | 44.00 |
19/04/2024 | 79.50 | 69.30 |
22/04/2024 | 76.25 | 73.00 |
WEEKLY AVERAGE | 79.35 | 61.12 |
The weekly average gas price settled at 79.35 pence per therm, while electricity averaged at 61.12 £ per MWh. Throughout the week, we observed fluctuations in both markets, with gas prices peaking midweek at 83.59 p/th due to escalating geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. Electricity prices also reflected this volatility, reaching a high of 72.00 £/MWh before stabilising. The week concluded with gas prices slightly reducing to 76.25 p/th and electricity prices rising to 73.00 £/MWh. These movements indicate a market dynamically adjusting to both the anticipated changes in weather and the ongoing international developments, underscoring the need for vigilant market monitoring and responsive energy strategies.
How Does This Compare to Last Week's Report?
Comparing the energy market's performance this week to last week reveals distinct trends and shifts that illustrate the market's sensitivity to external influences.
Gas Prices:Â Last week saw a moderate but steady increase in gas prices, starting at 68.25 p/th and climbing to a close of 75.00 p/th. This week, however, the fluctuations were more pronounced, with prices peaking significantly at 83.59 p/th due to intensified geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, before settling at 76.25 p/th. The sharper fluctuations this week indicate increased volatility, influenced by ongoing global issues.
Electricity Prices: Unlike gas, electricity prices last week demonstrated considerable volatility, dropping from an opening of 57.00 £/MWh to a low of 32.00 £/MWh and then slightly rising to 37.00 £/MWh by week's end. This week, electricity prices reached as high as 73.00 £/MWh, influenced by the knock-on effects of fluctuating gas prices and changes in wind generation capacity.
In Summary:
While gas prices continued an upward trend this week, the rise was sharper, reflecting the ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in supply. Electricity prices also increased significantly from the previous week's lows, driven by related increases in gas prices and variability in renewable energy production. These dynamics underscore the complexity of energy markets and the myriad factors—from weather conditions to international conflicts—that can influence pricing and market stability.
Oil Market Brief
Last week's oil market was marked by fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply dynamics, and economic data. Here's a detailed look at the week's key movements:
Monday, 15/04/2024: Oil prices rose due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but ultimately recorded a weekly loss. Brent crude futures rose 71 cents to settle at $90.45/barrel, while WTI crude rose 64 cents to $85.66/barrel. Despite the day’s gains, overall sentiment was weighed down by a bearish global demand forecast and concerns over U.S. interest rate cuts.
Tuesday, 16/04/2024: Markets remained on edge, closely watching the Middle East. Brent crude nudged up by 66 cents to $90.74/barrel, and WTI increased by 65 cents to $85.52/barrel. The market's focus was on potential escalations in the conflict, particularly how Israel would respond to Iran’s actions.
Wednesday, 17/04/2024:Â Oil prices edged lower amid economic concerns overshadowing geopolitical tensions. Brent dropped slightly by 8 cents to $90.02/barrel, and WTI decreased by 5 cents to $85.36/barrel. Investors were cautious, reflecting on economic data and upcoming Federal decisions influenced by inflation metrics.
Thursday, 18/04/2024:Â Prices took a sharp downturn, dropping around 3% due to a combination of rising U.S. stock levels and weakening economic signals from China. Brent crude fell by $2.73 to $87.29/barrel, and WTI by $2.67 to $82.69/barrel, marking the most significant single-day drop since March.
Friday, 19/04/2024:Â Oil steadied near three-week lows amidst mixed economic news from the U.S. and easing geopolitical tensions. Brent crude dipped 18 cents to $87.11/barrel, while WTI marginally rose by 4 cents to $82.73/barrel.
Monday, 22/04/2024:Â The week started with oil prices making modest gains, though the overall trend remained negative for the week. Brent futures slightly rose by 18 cents to $87.29/barrel. WTI crude increased by 41 cents to $83.14/barrel as markets digested the geopolitical situation and sanctions on Iran
Weekly Reflections: The oil market last week was heavily influenced by geopolitical events, particularly between Israel and Iran, which introduced volatility into the prices. Additionally, economic indicators and supply concerns played significant roles in shaping the market dynamics. As tensions appeared to ease towards the end of the week, the market softened, reflecting the complex interplay between geopolitical developments and broader economic factors.
This summary provides a comprehensive overview of the week's significant fluctuations in the oil market, highlighting the causes and implications of price changes, and sets the stage for what might come next in this volatile market environment.
Your Energy Guide
Our Weekly Wholesale Market Update gives a side-by-side comparison of the gas and electric market increases. For a wider view, the 12-month report sheds light on the bigger picture.
For day-to-day updates and detailed analysis, turn to our Daily Energy Market Reports. They are a valuable resource for understanding the market.
Advice for Your Business
For advice that fits with the latest market situation, get in touch for a free business energy quote. Our team at the Smart Energy Company is ready to help you make informed choices, tailored to the market’s current state.
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