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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 18/12/2023

Updated: Dec 19, 2023

Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's definitive guide to the latest trends in the UK energy markets. Our weekly reports provide the insights you need to make informed decisions for your business's energy needs.


Market Summary

Last week saw noteworthy changes in the energy market, with a downward trend in both gas and electricity prices due to a combination of warmer weather, strong supply, and increased renewable energy output.


image to show the percentage decrease in energy costs over the last week


 

Weekly Gas and Power Market Review: 11/12/2023 - 15/12/2023


The week began with gas and electricity prices at higher points but saw a consistent decrease as the week progressed, mainly driven by improved weather conditions and an increase in renewable energy contributions.


graph to show the wholesale market movements in the last week

Detailed Price Movements:

  • Start of the Week: Gas prices opened at 88.00 p/th and electricity at £86.00/MWh on 11/12/2023.

  • Midweek Trends: A steady decrease in gas prices to 84.75 p/th by 12/12/2023 and electricity prices following the trend.

  • End of the Week: Gas prices closed at 73.50 p/th and electricity at 67.00/MWh by 15/12/2023.


The decline was marked by stable gas supplies from Norway, LNG sendouts, and a boost in wind power generation.




Current Market Rates

On 18/12/2023, the new week began with gas prices opening at 74.75 p/th and electricity prices at £67.50/MWh, reflecting the continued influence of strong supply conditions and warmer temperatures on the market.


snapshot of market data over last week, month and year

Long-Term Trends

Understanding the past year's market movements can provide context for these weekly changes and help predict future trends.


graph to show the last 12 months wholesale market movements

Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

11/12/2023

88.00

86.00

12/12/2023

84.75

83.25

13/12/2023

85.00

83.00

14/12/2023

83.00

83.00

15/12/2023

73.50

67.00

18/12/2023

74.75

67.50

WEEKLY AVERAGE

81.50

78.29

 

Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 18/12/2023 to 25/12/2023


As we enter a new week in the UK energy market, several key factors are expected to influence the trajectory of gas and electricity prices:

  1. Weather Conditions: The current warm spell is anticipated to continue in the early part of the week, likely leading to reduced heating demand. However, any changes in the weather forecast, especially a return to cooler temperatures, could quickly shift this trend.

  2. Renewable Energy Output: Increased wind speeds are expected, which should bolster wind power generation. This increase in renewable energy output typically reduces reliance on gas for electricity generation, potentially leading to lower gas demand.

  3. Supply Dynamics: Norwegian gas flows and LNG sendouts are expected to remain robust. The market will closely monitor any changes in these supply sources, as they play a crucial role in maintaining balance.

  4. Maintenance and Outages: Scheduled maintenance, particularly in key supply infrastructures, will be closely watched. The return of facilities from outages could enhance supply, impacting prices.

  5. International Market Influences: Developments in international markets, including LNG availability and European demand, can indirectly affect UK prices. Any significant changes in these areas could introduce volatility.

  6. Domestic Consumption Patterns: With the holiday season approaching, changes in industrial and residential consumption patterns could influence demand.


Considering these factors, the upcoming week might see continued stability in prices, especially ifYour Weekly Guide


Our reports are designed to help businesses like yours navigate the complexities of the energy market. Stay informed to make the best decisions when negotiating your next energy contract


 

Oil Market Summary: 11/12/2023 to 18/12/2023


Overview:

The oil market witnessed a week of diverse fluctuations driven by data supporting demand growth, concerns over crude oversupply, and evolving global economic conditions.


  • Start of the Week: The week began on a positive note on 11/12/2023, with oil prices rising after U.S. data supported expectations of demand growth. Brent crude futures settled at $75.84 a barrel (up 2.4%), while WTI crude futures settled at $71.23 (up 2.7%).

  • Midweek Trends: On 12/12/2023, oil prices settled slightly higher, with Brent crude at $76.03 a barrel and WTI crude at $71.32. Despite OPEC+ production cuts, concerns about crude oversupply and softer fuel demand growth for the next year influenced the market.

  • Deepening Declines: A significant drop occurred on 13/12/2023, with oil prices falling more than 3% due to oversupply concerns and an unexpected rise in U.S. consumer prices. Brent crude futures settled down at $73.24, while WTI crude futures slipped to $68.61.

  • Recovery: On 14/12/2023, oil prices edged up, with Brent futures rising to $74.26 a barrel and WTI crude to $69.47, influenced by U.S. crude storage withdrawals and Middle East supply security concerns.

  • End of the Week: The week concluded on a mixed note on 15/12/2023, with Brent futures rising to $76.61 a barrel and WTI crude to $71.58, driven by a weaker dollar and an uplifted oil demand forecast by the IEA. However, on 18/12/2023, both Brent and U.S. crude futures saw a small loss, settling at $76.55 and $71.43 respectively, amid mixed signals for oil demand in the coming year.


Key Influencing Factors:

  • U.S. economic data and labor market strength influenced market expectations.

  • OPEC+ production cuts and compliance concerns affected supply dynamics.

  • Global economic indicators, particularly consumer price index data from the U.S. and China, impacted demand forecasts.

  • Security concerns in the Middle East highlighted potential supply risks.


Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 18/12/2023 to 25/12/2023


The oil market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by geopolitical developments, the outcomes of OPEC+ meetings, and global economic indicators. Market participants should closely monitor these evolving dynamics, as they will likely impact oil price movements in the coming week.


 

Stay Updated with Our Weekly Market Reports


Check our weekly market reports regularly to stay updated on the latest UK energy market trends. This equips you with the knowledge to capitalise on savings opportunities and make smart contract renewal decisions for your business.


image of a happy woman here, along with text highlighting the average savings per site in 2023.

 

Get Your Free Business Energy Quote Today


For tailored advice and to understand what current market rates mean for your business, contact us for a free quote.





Or Call us on 0151 459 3388


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