Your Weekly Guide to UK Energy Markets
Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report, your go-to source for the latest insights and updates on UK energy markets. As an energy brokerage company, we understand the importance of staying informed about the changing trends in the energy market. That's why we provide these weekly market reports, to help businesses like yours make informed decisions when negotiating your next energy contract.
Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report: Gas & Power Markets
From the 7th to the 14th of August 2023, the gas market experienced a whirlwind of fluctuations, influenced by several regional and global factors, resulting in varying prices across the week.
The week initiated with the NBP DA contract closing at 71.25p/th on the 7th, dropping by 4.25p/th. This was primarily due to increased gas flow from the Greater Britannia Area and indications that UK LNG is showing signs of recovery from the summer hiatus. By the 8th, the NBP DA contract stood steady at 71.4p/th, reflecting stable fundamentals in the North-West Europe balance. The 9th saw a modest rise with the NBP DA contract closing 1.35p/th higher at 72.75p/th, influenced by consistent UK continental shelf outputs and an uptick in Langeled flow.
However, the 10th marked a significant spike with the NBP DA soaring by over 37% to close at 100 p/th, propelled by concerns over the announced strikes at the Woodside-Chevron Australian LNG plants. This underscored European energy security concerns and intensified the competition for LNG cargoes between European and Asian markets.
Yet, this surge was short-lived. The 11th saw the NBP DA contract settling lower at 85p/th, a reflection of progressive talks between major Australian LNG exporters and the Australian Workers. These developments had the potential to mitigate strikes at pivotal LNG plants, which collectively cater to about 11% of the global LNG market.
Concluding the week on the 14th, the TF DA contract registered a 9% decline from the previous day due to surplus volumes sold at higher prices. This is while European stock levels approached the 90% full mark, a target set by the European Commission.
Key Points:
Rapid Fluctuations: The week observed a series of price changes, from notable drops to significant spikes.
Global Influences: Events like the potential strikes at Australian LNG plants highlighted the interconnectedness of global energy markets.
End-of-week Decline: Despite the mid-week turmoil, the week concluded with a drop in prices, influenced by a combination of factors including European stock levels and potential gas consumption changes.
Graph of the Last Week's Movements:
Let's take a visual look at the past week's gas and power market movements
Forecast:
Entering the forthcoming week, anticipations are set around continued volatility in the market, hinging on regional maintenance schedules, global geopolitical events, and evolving supply-demand dynamics. Beyond the immediate future, it's evident that larger economic trends and global energy transitions will further shape the gas market's trajectory.
Table of the Movements on Each Day in the Last Week:
Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:
DAY AHEAD PRICES | Gas (pence per therm) | Electric (£ per MWh) |
07/08/2023 | 72.40 | 73.25 |
08/08/2023 | 74.80 | 82.50 |
09/08/2023 | 95.90 | 83.00 |
10/08/2023 | 87.00 | 85.00 |
11/08/2023 | 78.90 | 88.00 |
12/08/2023 | 84.00 | 85.00 |
WEEKLY AVERAGE | 82.17 | 82.79 |
Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report: Oil Markets
From the 7th to the 14th of August 2023, the oil market witnessed substantial price fluctuations, largely influenced by a myriad of geopolitical and economic activities across the globe.
The week commenced with oil prices rising significantly on the 7th, as Brent crude futures settled at $86.24 a barrel. This bullish sentiment stemmed from extended supply cuts by leading producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, pushing prices to record a sixth consecutive week of gains.
By the 8th, there was a reversal in fortune, as prices dipped roughly 1% for both Brent crude and WTI. This downturn was primarily shaped by anticipations of reduced demand from the two global economic giants, the U.S. and China, coupled with a strengthening dollar.
The 9th saw a slight upward trend, with Brent crude settling at $86.17 a barrel. Positive U.S. economic forecasts provided a boost, counterbalancing China's lackluster import and export data. However, the market truly surged on the 10th, witnessing oil prices hit new peaks. Factors such as declining U.S. fuel stockpiles and ongoing production cuts by major oil producers played a pivotal role in this surge.
Yet, by the 11th, prices retracted, as geopolitical concerns, especially tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region, began looming over the market. The subsequent impact of China's economic challenges further dampened the oil demand outlook.
Rounding off the week on the 14th, a positive trajectory was observed again with the International Energy Agency forecasting record global demand and dwindling supplies, which resulted in both Brent crude and WTI futures rising by about 0.5%.
Key Points:
Dynamic Pricing: The oil market experienced substantial price oscillations throughout the week.
Geopolitical & Economic Interactions: Key drivers ranged from geopolitical tensions, such as potential conflicts in the Black Sea region, to economic data releases from major economies.
End-of-week Boost: Despite mid-week volatilities, the week wrapped up on a high note due to global demand predictions.
Forecast: Moving into the upcoming week, market watchers anticipate sustained unpredictability. Factors likely to shape the landscape include ongoing geopolitical events, supply chain adjustments from major producers, and ever-changing global demand patterns. Over a longer horizon, broader economic shifts and worldwide energy transformations will undoubtedly steer the direction of the oil markets.
12-Month Graph to Show the Movements Over the Last Year
Now, let's zoom out and take a look at the long-term trends in the energy market over the past year:
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