Welcome to our 'Weekly Energy Market' update, where we dissect the latest trends and changes from 20th May to 28th May 2024. This guide will walk you through the fluctuations of the last week, revealing trends, insights, and forecasts in the UK energy and oil markets.
Weekly Energy Market At A Glance
Overview
This past week in the energy market has seen notable changes influenced by geopolitical events, supply disruptions, and varying demand forecasts. This update summarises the key developments in the gas and power markets, compares current prices with historical data, and provides a forecast for the upcoming week.
Key Market Developments
The past week witnessed significant fluctuations in energy prices driven by several factors:
Geopolitical Tensions: The death of the Iranian President in a helicopter crash heightened risks in the Middle East, influencing market sentiment and contributing to price increases.
Supply Disruptions: Maintenance activities at Kollsnes and Trol, combined with news of bankruptcies affecting the Golden Pass LNG project in Texas, raised concerns about future supply stability.
Demand Fluctuations: Changes in gas-for-power demand due to varying wind speeds significantly impacted market prices. Lower wind speeds increased gas demand for power generation, while higher wind speeds had the opposite effect.
Gas Market Summary
Price Movements: The NBP Day-Ahead (DA) gas prices started at 79.70p/th on 21st May, peaked at 87.60p/th on 23rd May, and then adjusted to 82.75p/th by 28th May. This week was marked by sharp price increases followed by a slight decline.
Key Influences: Geopolitical events, supply chain issues, and fluctuating demand were the main drivers of these price changes. Increased imports from Norway and improved renewable energy output helped stabilise prices towards the end of the week.
Power Market Summary
Price Movements: Electricity prices followed a similar trend, starting at £76.50/MWh on 21st May, peaking at £84.40/MWh on 23rd May, and closing at £75.75/MWh on 28th May.
Key Influences: The power market was influenced by gas prices, renewable energy output, and overall market balance. Improved wind generation towards the end of the week contributed to the reduction in power prices
Current Prices and Historical Comparison
To provide a clearer picture, let’s compare the recent prices to historical data from the start of the year:
Gas Prices: Gas prices have decreased from the highs of January but have risen significantly from the lows observed in April.
28th May 2024: 83.00p/th
24th May 2024: 82.50p/th
23rd May 2024: 87.60p/th
21st May 2024: 79.70p/th
10th April 2024: 66.00p/th
5th January 2024: 89.00p/th
Electricity Prices: Similar to gas prices, electricity prices are lower than the peaks seen in January but have increased from April’s lower levels.
28th May 2024: £75.75/MWh
24th May 2024: £80.00/MWh
23rd May 2024: £84.40/MWh
21st May 2024: £76.50/MWh
10th April 2024: £57.00/MWh
5th January 2024: £92.00/MWh
Visual Insights
To better understand the current market trends and historical context, we have included two visual aids:
Day Ahead Wholesale Energy Market Movements:
This chart provides a snapshot of the day-ahead wholesale prices for gas and electricity as of 28th May 2024. It also includes a comparison to previous data points, offering insights into daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes.
12 Month Day Ahead Wholesale Market Report:
This graph illustrates the movements in day-ahead wholesale prices for gas and electricity over the past 12 months, helping to contextualise recent price trends within a broader timeframe.
Forecast for the Upcoming Week
Looking ahead, several factors will influence the market:
Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing tensions and any new developments in the Middle East could impact supply security and market sentiment.
Weather Conditions: Expected higher wind speeds could reduce gas demand for power generation, potentially stabilising prices.
Supply Updates: Any changes in maintenance schedules or unexpected supply disruptions will be critical to monitor.
Conclusion
The past week has been marked by notable price volatility in the energy market, influenced by a range of factors from geopolitical events to supply chain disruptions. While current prices have stabilised somewhat from mid-week peaks, the market remains sensitive to external factors. As we move into the next week, keeping an eye on geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and supply changes will be essential to anticipate market movements.
Weekly Oil Market Update: 21st - 28th May 2024
Overview
This past week, oil markets experienced a mix of gains and declines influenced by economic indicators from major economies, interest rate speculations, and inventory levels. Here's a brief summary of the key movements and factors affecting oil prices.
Key Market Developments
Economic Indicators: Positive economic data from China and the U.S. initially boosted hopes for increased demand. China's industrial output showed a significant year-on-year increase, and both countries reported positive steps in stabilising economic conditions.
Interest Rate Speculations: U.S. Federal Reserve officials indicated that interest rate cuts might be delayed due to sustained inflation, raising concerns about future oil demand. Higher interest rates can slow economic growth, reducing fuel consumption.
Inventory Levels: Changes in oil inventories also influenced prices. Early in the week, declines in inventories created optimism about demand. However, by midweek, reports of rising crude stocks in the U.S. contributed to price declines.
Oil Price Summary
20th May 2024: Brent crude settled 0.9% higher at $83.98/barrel, and WTI increased by 1.1% to $80.06/barrel, driven by positive economic data from China and the U.S.
21st May 2024: Prices eased slightly as the U.S. Federal Reserve awaited more signs of declining inflation. Brent fell to $83.71/barrel, and WTI to $79.80/barrel.
22nd May 2024: Oil prices dropped by 1% due to ongoing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates. Brent settled at $82.88/barrel, and WTI at $79.26/barrel.
23rd May 2024: Prices continued to fall, with Brent at $81.90/barrel and WTI at $77.57/barrel, as Federal Reserve comments sparked worries about prolonged high interest rates.
24th May 2024: Oil prices hit multi-month lows. Brent settled at $81.36/barrel, and WTI at $76.87/barrel, amid persistent concerns over demand growth.
28th May 2024: Prices rebounded by over 1% due to muted trade on public holidays in Britain and the U.S. Brent closed at $83.12/barrel, and WTI at $78.65/barrel.
Anomalies and Key Drivers
Geopolitical Impact: Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, influenced market sentiment, although the primary drivers were economic and financial in nature.
Interest Rates and Inflation: Speculations about U.S. interest rate policies and their impact on inflation played a significant role in daily price movements.
Inventory Changes: Fluctuations in oil inventories at global trading hubs affected market optimism and price trends.
Conclusion
The oil market has seen a mix of price increases and declines over the past week, heavily influenced by economic indicators and interest rate speculations. While prices rebounded slightly at the end of the week, the market remains sensitive to external factors. As we move into the next week, monitoring geopolitical developments, economic data, and interest rate policies will be essential to anticipate market movements.
Advice for Your Business
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