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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 27/11/2023


Infographic displaying Weekly Wholesale Market Update for the period 20/11/2023 to 27/11/2023 with a 0.87% increase in the Gas Market and a 16.04% increase in the Electric Market, featuring upward arrows and the logo of Smart En. Co.

Your Weekly Guide to UK Energy Markets


Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report, your go-to source for the latest insights and updates on UK energy markets. As an energy brokerage company, we understand the importance of staying informed about the changing trends in the energy market. That's why we provide these weekly market reports, to help businesses like yours make informed decisions when negotiating your next energy contract.

 

Weekly Gas and Power Market Review: 20/11/2023 - 27/11/2023


Gas Market Overview:

  • Start of the Week: Gas prices opened at 115.00 p/th on 20/11/2023, influenced by a stronger renewable forecast and mild weather, hinting at weaker spot consumption. However, the anticipation of colder weather increased demand expectations.

  • Midweek Trends: Prices fluctuated throughout the week. On 21/11/2023, they rose to 113.53 p/th, driven by a weather-induced demand surge, but softened to 109.99 p/th by 22/11/2023 due to weaker demand forecasts and ample supply. A bullish trend emerged again on 23/11/2023 with prices reaching 120.49 p/th, fueled by the early arrival of colder temperatures.

  • End of the Week: The week closed with a slight increase in gas prices to 116.00 p/th on 27/11/2023. This uptick was attributed to colder weather and an unplanned outage at the Aasta Hansteen field.

Electricity Market Overview:

  • Start of the Week: Electricity prices started at £106.00/MWh on 20/11/2023, reflecting the impact of a stronger renewable output and mild weather conditions.

  • Midweek Trends: The electricity market saw a steady rise in prices, hitting £98.50/MWh on 21/11/2023 and then experiencing a significant drop to £79.50/MWh on 22/11/2023. By 23/11/2023, prices plummeted further to £78.00/MWh due to increased wind generation and mild temperatures.

  • Start of the New Week: Prices rebounded to £123.00/MWh on 27/11/2023, driven by colder weather and increased heating demand.

Key Factors Influencing the Market:

  • Weather Conditions: The fluctuating temperatures significantly influenced both gas and electricity prices. The arrival of colder weather towards the end of the week led to increased heating demand.

  • Renewable Energy Output: Strong wind power generation midweek contributed to a decrease in electricity prices.

  • Supply Dynamics: Steady Norwegian gas flows and robust LNG supply provided some balance to the market, despite the bullish pressure from colder weather.

  • Market Reactions: The gas market responded to short-term weather forecasts, while electricity prices were more influenced by immediate renewable outputs.

Conclusion:

The UK gas and power markets last week were primarily driven by the interplay of weather conditions and renewable energy outputs. While gas prices experienced modest fluctuations, electricity prices witnessed more significant changes. The forecast for colder weather and associated higher heating demand towards the end of the week notably influenced the market dynamics.



Graph of the Last Week's Movements:


Let's take a visual look at the past week's gas and power market movements


graph to show the last 7days wholesale energy market movements
snapshot of the moving wholesale energy prices from yesterday, last week, month and year

Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 27/11/2023 to 04/12/2023


Key Factors Influencing Gas and Power Markets:


Weather Conditions:

  • Colder Temperatures: The UK is bracing for continued cold weather, particularly from Tuesday to Sunday, with temperature drops ranging between 0.9 and 1.7 °C. This will likely boost heating demand, exerting upward pressure on both gas and electricity prices.

  • Weakening Wind Speeds: Lower wind speeds forecasted for the upcoming days may reduce wind power generation, potentially increasing reliance on gas for electricity production.

Supply Dynamics:

  • Robust Gas Imports: Strong and consistent gas imports from Norway and a stable LNG supply are expected to continue, which could counterbalance the increased demand due to colder weather.

  • UK Domestic Production: With the return of the Tolmount field and Barrow North, UK domestic gas production is set to increase, potentially easing supply constraints.

  • Gas Storage: Gas storage levels, currently at 97.5% capacity, provide a buffer against supply disruptions. However, the transition to net withdrawals from storage is anticipated due to rising consumption.

Renewables Output:

  • Variability in Wind Generation: Fluctuations in wind output will play a crucial role in determining gas-for-power demand. A decrease in wind generation could lead to higher gas consumption for electricity production.

European Market Dynamics:

  • French Nuclear Capacity: The expected increase in French nuclear capacity could influence electricity prices, potentially easing demand for gas-fired power generation in the broader European market.

Geopolitical and Economic Factors:

  • Global Market Sentiment: Ongoing global economic and geopolitical events will continue to influence market sentiments and could introduce volatility in the energy markets.

Expected Market Trends:

  • Gas Prices: Likely to see fluctuations, with a general upward trend in response to increased heating demand due to colder weather. However, this could be moderated by strong gas imports and domestic production.

  • Electricity Prices: Expected to be volatile, primarily influenced by changing weather conditions affecting renewable output. The potential reduction in wind energy generation may lead to higher electricity prices due to increased gas-for-power demand.

 

Table of the Movements on Each Day in the Last Week:


Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

20/11/2023

115.00

106.00

21/11/2023

113.53

98.50

22/11/2023

109.99

79.50

23/11/2023

120.49

78.00

24/11/2023

119.90

114.00

27/11/2023

116.00

123.00

WEEKLY AVERAGE

115.82

99.83

 

Oil Market Summary: 20/11/2023 to 27/11/2023


Overview

The oil market last week experienced fluctuating trends, influenced by geopolitical events, expectations from OPEC+, and various economic indicators.


Start of the Week (20/11/2023)

  • Rebound in Prices: Brent crude rebounded to above $80, marking a 4.1% gain from a four-month low at around $77/bbl. This was likely driven by short-covering and the natural support level around $80.

  • Economic Factors: Global economic news, including China's slowing industrial growth and US sanctions on Russian oil, impacted the market dynamics.

Midweek Movements

  • 21/11/2023: Oil prices climbed more than 2% with expectations of further OPEC+ production cuts, setting Brent crude at $82.32 a barrel.

  • 22/11/2023: Prices remained near flat, with Brent settling at $82.45 a barrel, as the market awaited the OPEC+ meeting.

  • 23/11/2023: Brent futures settled at $81.96 a barrel, falling nearly 1% after an unexpected delay in the OPEC+ meeting.

Week's End (24/11/2023 to 27/11/2023)

  • 24/11/2023: Brent crude futures dipped to $81.28 a barrel amid expectations that OPEC+ might not deepen output cuts.

  • 27/11/2023: Prices fell further, with Brent crude closing at $80.58 a barrel. The geopolitical risk premium decreased following the release of hostages in Gaza, but expectations for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting kept the market on edge.

Start of the New Week (27/11/2023)

  • Market Anticipation: The market is focusing on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, with speculations about production cuts for 2024.

Key Points

  • Geopolitical Developments: The Middle East tensions, particularly the situation in Gaza, influenced oil prices.

  • OPEC+ Meeting: The market reacted strongly to the anticipation and delays of the OPEC+ meeting, affecting global supply expectations.

  • Supply and Economic Dynamics: Decisions by OPEC+, US oil production levels, and economic data from major economies were crucial in shaping market trends.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 27/11/2023 to 04/12/2023

The oil market is expected to remain volatile, with a focus on the outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting, ongoing geopolitical developments, and economic indicators from key global economies. Market participants should stay attentive to these evolving dynamics, which are likely to influence oil price movements in the coming week.


12-Month Graph to Show the Movements Over the Last Year


Now, let's zoom out and take a look at the long-term trends in the energy market over the past year:


graph to show the last 12months wholesale market movements

 

Stay Updated with Our Weekly Market Reports


Check our weekly market reports regularly to stay updated on the latest UK energy market trends. This equips you with the knowledge to capitalise on savings opportunities and make smart contract renewal decisions for your business.

 
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