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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 25/09/2023

Your Weekly Guide to UK Energy Markets


Image to show direction of wholesale market movements since last week

Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report, your go-to source for the latest insights and updates on UK energy markets. As an energy brokerage company, we understand the importance of staying informed about the changing trends in the energy market. That's why we provide these weekly market reports, to help businesses like yours make informed decisions when negotiating your next energy contract.

 

Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report: Gas & Power Markets


From the 18th to the 25th of September 2023, the gas and power markets experienced significant upward trends, influenced by various factors such as maintenance delays in Norwegian fields and shifts in weather patterns.


Start of the Week:

The week kicked off on the 18th with the NBP DA contract trading at 86.35p/th for gas and £63.00/MWh for electricity. The primary influences were delays in the start-up of Norway's Troll field and strong winds over the NWE.


Midweek Movements:

By the 19th, gas prices rose to 92.20p/th, while electricity plummeted to £49.25/MWh due to higher Norwegian export nominations and softer non-local demand. On the 20th, gas prices surged to 95.85p/th, and electricity rebounded to £82.50/MWh, driven by extended Norwegian maintenance schedules and colder weather forecasts.


The 21st saw another increase in gas to 101.30p/th and electricity to £88.50/MWh, influenced by uncertainties around Troll production and expected increases in local demand.


Week's End:

The week concluded on the 25th with gas soaring to 110.00p/th and electricity reaching £97.00/MWh. The key drivers were slower-than-expected ramp-up from Norway and a forecast of higher DA consumption.


Start of the New Week:

The new week is expected to be influenced by the ongoing maintenance work in Norway and the weather forecasts indicating a warmer start to October.


Key Points:

  • Norwegian Delays: Continued delays and extensions in Norwegian maintenance had a significant bullish impact on gas prices.

  • Demand Fluctuations: Both local and non-local demand saw changes, affecting the market balance significantly.

Graph of the Last Week's Movements:


Let's take a visual look at the past week's gas and power market movements


Graph to show wholesale market updates over the last week
snapshot of wholesale energy markets

Forecast for the Week Starting on 25th September 2023:


The upcoming week is expected to see continued volatility in both gas and power markets. On the gas front, the slower-than-expected ramp-up from Norway's Troll and Skarv fields could continue to exert upward pressure on prices. However, the end of strikes at Chevron's Australian LNG facilities may introduce some bearish sentiment.


For electricity, the forecast of milder weather at the beginning of October could potentially soften demand, but this may be offset by any unexpected maintenance or supply disruptions.


Overall, market participants should remain vigilant and keep an eye on Norwegian maintenance schedules, weather forecasts, and geopolitical developments that could influence supply and demand dynamics.

 

Table of the Movements on Each Day in the Last Week:


Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

18/09/2023

86.35

63.00

19/09/2023

92.20

49.25

20/09/2023

95.85

82.50

21/09/2023

101.30

88.50

22/09/2023

104.75

80.00

25/09/2023

110.00

97.00

WEEKLY AVERAGE

98.41

76.71

 

Weekly Oil Market Summary:


The week saw oil prices fluctuating due to a mix of supply and demand factors. Prices started strong, buoyed by extended production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. However, they faced downward pressure midweek following the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates. Russia's temporary ban on fuel exports added another layer of complexity. By the end of the week, Brent futures settled at $93.27 a barrel, breaking a three-week streak of gains, while WTI rose to $90.03 a barrel.


Forecast for the Upcoming Week:


The upcoming week is expected to be influenced by several key factors. On the supply side, Russia's fuel export ban and the potential for further OPEC+ cuts will be closely watched. On the demand side, the market will be eyeing the impact of potential interest rate hikes and refinery maintenance schedules. Investors should also keep an eye on U.S. oil rig counts and any geopolitical developments that could affect supply.

 

12-Month Graph to Show the Movements Over the Last Year


Now, let's zoom out and take a look at the long-term trends in the energy market over the past year:


Graph to show last 12 month wholesale energy market movements

 

Stay Updated with Our Weekly Market Reports


Check our weekly market reports regularly to stay updated on the latest UK energy market trends. This equips you with the knowledge to capitalise on savings opportunities and make smart contract renewal decisions for your business.


 

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