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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 23/10/2023


snapshot of wholesale market movements

Your Weekly Guide to UK Energy Markets

Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report, your go-to source for the latest insights and updates on UK energy markets. As an energy brokerage company, we understand the importance of staying informed about the changing trends in the energy market. That's why we provide these weekly market reports, to help businesses like yours make informed decisions when negotiating your next energy contract.

 

Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Movements: 16/10/2023 to 23/10/2023


Start of the Week:

The week began on 16th October with gas prices at 107.50 p/th and electricity prices at £112.00/MWh.


Midweek Movements:

By 19th October, gas prices had slightly decreased to 106.00 p/th, a drop of about 1.4%, while electricity prices plummeted to £72.00/MWh, a significant decrease of approximately 35.7%. The decrease in electricity prices could be attributed to strong wind generation and bearish market fundamentals.


Week's End:

The week concluded on 23rd October with gas prices at 114.75 p/th, an increase of about 6.7% from the start of the week. Electricity prices also rebounded to £105.00/MWh, a decrease of about 6.3% compared to the start of the week.


Key Points:

  • Gas Supply: The gas market saw fluctuations due to various factors, including falling temperatures and geopolitical risks.

  • Weather: Milder weather forecasts for the upcoming days are expected to reduce local gas demand.

  • Global Events: Geopolitical tensions and maintenance work at LNG terminals influenced the market.

Start of the New Week: 23/10/2023

The new week kicked off with gas prices at 114.75 p/th and electricity prices at £105.00/MWh. Compared to the start of last week, gas prices have increased by 6.74%, while electricity prices have decreased by 6.25%.


Market Summary for 23/10/2023:

Gas prices rose due to the prognosis of falling temperatures and expectations of storage injection slowing down. On the bearish side, a forecast for milder weather in the upcoming days is expected to reduce local gas demand. The next two weeks are expected to be warm in NWE, with temperatures fluctuating around 1.5°C above the seasonal average. Risk of higher heating demand is expected due to the forecast of cooler temperatures arriving in the second week of November. In the UK, temperatures are expected to oscillate around the seasonal average. The Montoir LNG terminal increased its sendouts after the completion of maintenance work last Friday.

Graph of the Last Week's Movements:


Let's take a visual look at the past week's gas and power market movements


graph to show the wholesale market movements in the last week
snapshot of market movements from last week, month and year


Forecast for the Week of 23/10/2023 to 30/10/2023


Gas Market:

  • Price Fluctuations: Given the prognosis of falling temperatures and slowing storage injections, gas prices are expected to remain volatile.

  • Weather Impact: Milder weather in the upcoming days could reduce local gas demand, but cooler temperatures in the second week of November may drive prices up.

  • Global Events: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the completion of maintenance work at the Montoir LNG terminal could influence gas prices.

Electricity Market:

  • Price Movements: Electricity prices are expected to be influenced by gas prices and weather conditions. Strong wind generation could keep prices in check.

  • Weather Impact: Temperatures are expected to oscillate around the seasonal average in the UK, which could mean stable electricity demand.

  • Renewable Energy: Wind speeds are expected to return to seasonal averages, which could impact gas-for-power demand.

Key Points to Watch:

  1. Geopolitical Risks: Keep an eye on global events, especially in the Middle East, as they could add a risk premium to energy prices.

  2. Weather Forecasts: Any sudden changes in weather forecasts could have a significant impact on both gas and electricity prices.

  3. Supply Constraints: Monitor any news related to LNG supply or pipeline maintenance, as these could cause sudden price spikes.

This forecast aims to provide a general outlook and should not be considered as financial advice. Always consult with professionals for any investment or trading decisions.

 

Table of the Movements on Each Day in the Last Week:


Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

16/10/2023

107.50

112.00

17/10/2023

103.50

62.00

18/10/2023

110.40

73.75

19/10/2023

106.00

72.00

20/10/2023

112.00

108.00

21/10/2023

114.75

105.00

WEEKLY AVERAGE

109.03

88.79

 

Oil Market Summary: 16/10/2023 to 23/10/2023


Start of the Week:

The week began with Brent crude oil gaining nearly 6% due to the escalation of the Israel-Gaza conflict, marking the highest weekly gain since February. The geopolitical tension in the Middle East raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supplies.


Midweek Movements:

By 19th October, oil prices climbed about 2% to a two-week high, largely driven by a bigger-than-expected U.S. storage draw and concerns about global supplies following Iran's call for an oil embargo on Israel.


Week's End:

The week concluded on 23rd October with oil prices settling lower. Brent crude futures fell 0.2% to $92.16 a barrel, while WTI futures fell 0.7% to $88.75 a barrel. The release of two U.S. hostages by Hamas led to hopes of de-escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian crisis.


Key Points:

  • Geopolitical Tensions: The Israel-Gaza conflict and its potential to escalate into a regional crisis remained a significant driver for oil prices.

  • Global Supplies: Concerns about global supplies were alleviated and then heightened again due to various geopolitical events.

  • Market Forecasts: Saudi Arabia and Russia's decision to extend supply cuts to year-end supports forecasts of a tightening market in Q4.

Start of the New Week: 23/10/2023

The new week started with Brent crude at $92.16 a barrel and WTI at $88.75 a barrel. Compared to the start of last week, Brent crude increased by approximately 0.2%, while WTI decreased by about 0.7%.


 

Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 23/10/2023 to 30/10/2023


Oil Markets:

The oil market is expected to remain volatile in the coming week, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continuing to be a significant factor. The release of U.S. hostages by Hamas has led to some optimism, but the situation remains fluid. Market participants will be closely watching any developments in the Israel-Gaza conflict and its potential spillover effects on the broader Middle East region.


Additionally, the extension of supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia until the end of the year is likely to keep the market tight, supporting higher prices. However, any announcements from the U.S. or OPEC+ regarding changes in production could influence market dynamics.


Investors will also be keeping an eye on U.S. inventory data and global demand forecasts, especially as we move closer to the winter season, which typically sees increased energy consumption.


Key Factors to Watch:

  • Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East conflict will have immediate impacts on oil prices.

  • Supply and Demand: With winter approaching, demand is expected to rise. How this matches with supply will be crucial.

  • Economic Indicators: Data on economic recovery post-COVID-19 and any changes in interest rates could also affect oil prices.

Given the current uncertainties, it would be prudent for traders and investors to exercise caution and stay updated on global events that could influence the oil markets.


This forecast is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always consult with professionals for any investment or trading decisions.

 

12-Month Graph to Show the Movements Over the Last Year


Now, let's zoom out and take a look at the long-term trends in the energy market over the past year:


graph to show last 6 month wholesale market movements

 

Stay Updated with Our Weekly Market Reports


Check our weekly market reports regularly to stay updated on the latest UK energy market trends. This equips you with the knowledge to capitalise on savings opportunities and make smart contract renewal decisions for your business.


 

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