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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 15/01/2024

Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's definitive guide to the latest trends in the UK energy markets. Our weekly reports provide the insights you need to make informed decisions for your business's energy needs.

Weekly Energy Market Summary

Last week saw noteworthy changes in the energy market, with a downward trend in both gas and electricity prices due to a combination of warmer weather, strong supply, and increased renewable energy output.

image to show the percentage decrease in the energy market from the previous week


Weekly Gas and Power Market Review: 08/01/2024 - 15/01/2024

Detailed Price Movements:

  • Start of the Week: Gas prices opened at 80.20 p/th and electricity at £91.50/MWh on 08/01/2024. The gas market was influenced by a higher demand forecast and the arrival of LNG cargoes.

  • Midweek Trends: Prices saw some volatility, with gas dipping to 78.00 p/th on 09/01/2024 amid increased LNG sendouts. Electricity prices remained relatively stable, reflecting the sideways demand forecast and the steady supply situation.

  • End of the Week: The week concluded on 12/01/2024 with gas prices peaking at 81.50 p/th, driven by lower temperatures increasing residential heating demand and an unplanned reduction in production at the Norwegian Aasta Hansteen field. Electricity prices moderated to £77.50/MWh, affected by the forecast for stronger winds, which could limit the gas for power demand.

graph to show the last 7 days wholesale energy market movements

Current Market Rates

The new week began on 15/01/2024 with gas prices at 79.20 p/th and electricity at £90.00/MWh. The fundamental outlook for the UK was mixed with colder weather expected to boost demand, balanced by withdrawals and LNG storages.

Key Influences on the Market:

  • The arrival and processing of LNG cargoes provided an important supply source, affecting gas prices.

  • Weather forecasts, particularly for wind speeds and temperature, played a significant role in shaping demand for gas and electricity.

  • Fluctuations in wind energy production impacted the need for gas-powered electricity generation.

  • Changes in supply due to maintenance and rerouting of exports influenced the market dynamics.

snapshot of last weeks, month and years energy prices

Long-Term Trends

Understanding the past year's market movements can provide context for these weekly changes and help predict future trends.

graph to show the wholesale market movements over the last 12 months

Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:


Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)























Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 15/01/2024 - 22/01/2024

As we enter a new week in the UK energy market, several key factors are poised to shape the trends in gas and electricity prices:

  1. Weather Impact: The expected cold spell over the UK, with temperatures forecasted to be as low as 5 degrees Celsius below the seasonal average, will likely increase heating demand, potentially leading to a rise in gas prices.

  2. LNG Cargo Arrivals: The continued arrival of LNG cargoes this week is expected to provide an ample supply, which could help to balance the increased demand due to the cold weather.

  3. Renewable Energy Generation: Wind speeds are anticipated to fluctuate throughout the week. A sharp drop by midweek followed by an increase could lead to variable reliance on gas for power generation, thus affecting prices.

  4. Supply Dynamics: Norwegian imports are expected to remain high and stable, offering support to the UK's supply needs. However, any unexpected outages or reductions in flows could quickly alter this outlook.

  5. Market Balance: The UK system is likely to be balanced by heavy withdrawals from storages during high-demand days, along with robust LNG sendouts.

  6. Long-Term Forecasts: A colder long-term weather forecast for February could start to influence market sentiment, with expectations of sustained higher demand.

  7. 8

Given these considerations, the upcoming week may see heightened volatility in energy prices. Businesses should monitor the situation closely, particularly the weather forecasts and LNG sendout levels, to manage their energy strategies effectively. It's also a prudent time for those with upcoming contract renewals to evaluate the market for potential procurement opportunities.

Your Weekly Guide

Our reports are designed to help businesses like yours navigate the complexities of the energy market. Stay informed to make the best decisions when negotiating your next energy contract


Oil Market Summary: 08/01/2024 to 15/01/2024


This week, the oil market witnessed considerable price fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply changes, and inventory updates.

Start of the Week:

  • Oil prices increased on 08/01/2024, with Brent crude futures settling 1.51% higher at $78.76 a barrel, and WTI crude futures rising by 2.24% to close at $73.81, responding to the Middle East tensions and disruptions in shipping routes.

Midweek Trends:

  • On 09/01/2024, oil prices fell sharply by over 3% due to Saudi Arabia's price cuts and a rise in OPEC output, which offset supply concerns from Middle East tensions.

  • By 10/01/2024, oil prices rebounded around 2%, bolstered by the crisis in the Middle East and a Libyan supply outage.

Deepening Declines:

  • On 11/01/2024, a surprise jump in U.S. crude stockpiles led to a nearly one-dollar drop in oil prices, with WTI crude futures falling 1.2% to $71.37 a barrel, and Brent crude settling 1% lower at $76.80 a barrel.

End of the Week:

  • The week concluded on a higher note on 12/01/2024, with oil prices gaining about 1% after Iran seized a tanker, escalating Middle East conflict concerns. Brent futures rose 0.8% to settle at $77.41 a barrel, and WTI crude rose 0.9% to $72.02.

  • On 15/01/2024, prices rose again by 1% as tanker routes were diverted from the Red Sea following U.S. and British strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Brent crude settled at $78.29 a barrel, and WTI crude at $72.68.

Key Influencing Factors:

  • Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, especially around the Red Sea, have been a significant driver of oil prices this week.

  • Saudi Arabia's price cuts and changes in OPEC production levels have contributed to market volatility.

  • U.S. inventory levels and production forecasts, along with Saudi import adjustments by China, have influenced trading patterns.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week: The oil market may continue to experience volatility, particularly in response to the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and potential changes in global oil inventories. Market participants should monitor these developments closely, as they are likely to impact oil price movements in the near term.


Stay Updated with Our Weekly Market Reports

Check our weekly market reports regularly to stay updated on the latest UK energy market trends. This equips you with the knowledge to capitalise on savings opportunities and make smart contract renewal decisions for your business.

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Have More Questions?

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  • What is energy procurement?
    Energy procurement is the process of sourcing, negotiating, and securing energy contracts to meet the specific needs of a business. It involves analysing energy consumption patterns, understanding market trends, and negotiating with suppliers to obtain the best possible rates and contract terms.
  • Why is energy procurement important for my business?
    Energy procurement ensures that your business secures energy contracts that are both cost-effective and aligned with your operational needs. Proper energy procurement can lead to significant cost savings, budget predictability, and reduced risks associated with volatile energy markets.
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