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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 13/11/2023

Updated: Nov 20, 2023


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Your Weekly Guide to UK Energy Markets


Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report, your go-to source for the latest insights and updates on UK energy markets. As an energy brokerage company, we understand the importance of staying informed about the changing trends in the energy market. That's why we provide these weekly market reports, to help businesses like yours make informed decisions when negotiating your next energy contract.

 

Weekly Energy Market Review: 06/11/2023 - 13/11/2023


The energy market this week presented a dynamic landscape with gas and electricity prices demonstrating notable fluctuations in the context of varying supply and demand dynamics.

  • Start of the Week: The week opened on 06/11/2023 with gas prices at 100.75 p/th and electricity prices at £90.25/MWh. The market was set against a backdrop of softer UK continental shelf production and an uptick in local consumption, which pushed the gas prices above the 100 p/th mark.

  • Midweek Movements: By 08/11/2023, gas prices reached a peak of 109.00 p/th, with electricity following suit at £97.00/MWh, despite comfortable supply fundamentals. A colder outlook and reduced wind power generation provided upward pressure on prices, maintaining them above the 100 p/th threshold.

  • End of the Week: Heading towards the end of the week, on 10/11/2023, gas prices saw a slight decrease, closing at 103.50 p/th, while electricity prices remained stable at £95.50/MWh. The market seemed to balance out with steady supply and a soft outlook on local demand, despite the potential for colder temperatures towards the end of the next week.

  • Start of the New Week: The new week began on 13/11/2023 with gas prices at 97.00 p/th, showing a decrease, and electricity prices slightly up at £95.50/MWh. The market reflects a bearish sentiment due to a loose balance, with a forecast of warmer temperatures contributing to lower demand.

Throughout the week, geopolitical concerns, particularly the situation in Gaza, played a role in market sensitivity. The UK balance remained comfortable with the expectation of increased Norwegian gas volumes and a substantial number of LNG cargoes expected to arrive in the coming days.



Graph of the Last Week's Movements:


Let's take a visual look at the past week's gas and power market movements


graph to show the wholesale market movements on each day
image to show the difference in wholesale costs from last week, month and year

Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 13/11/2023 to 20/11/2023


Looking ahead, the UK energy market anticipates several influencing factors:

  • Weather Forecast: A revised weather forecast predicts below-normal temperatures from late November, potentially increasing demand for heating.

  • Geopolitical Developments: The ongoing situation in Gaza continues to pose a risk of market volatility.

  • Supply and Storage: With the return of the Vesterled pipeline and maintenance completion, a robust supply is expected. However, the upcoming maintenance of IUK from 16 Nov could impact the UK balance.

  • Renewables Output: A less windy forecast may reduce wind generation, potentially affecting electricity prices.

  • Maintenance and Imports: The end of maintenance at the Oseberg field could increase supply levels, while the market will watch for LNG cargo arrivals.

  • Market Sentiment: The balance appears loose this week, but colder forecasts for December might increase demand, influencing future pricing.

The interplay of these factors suggests the possibility of continued volatility in energy prices, with stakeholders advised to stay alert to rapid changes in the market.

 

Table of the Movements on Each Day in the Last Week:


Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

06/11/2023

100.75

90.25

07/11/2023

105.50

86.50

08/11/2023

109.00

97.00

09/11/2023

107.00

98.51

10/11/2023

103.50

95.50

13/11/2023

97.00

95.50

WEEKLY AVERAGE

103.79

93.88

 

Oil Market Summary: 06/11/2023 to 13/11/2023


The oil market last week was characterised by a sequence of declines and modest rebounds, as geopolitical and economic indicators swayed prices.

  • Start of the Week: On 06/11/2023, the market reflected easing supply concerns and economic data affecting U.S. interest rate expectations. Brent crude futures fell by 2.3% to $84.89 a barrel, while WTI crude futures decreased by 2.4% to $80.51 a barrel.

  • Midweek Movements: Prices fluctuated, with Brent crude dipping to a low of $79.54 a barrel by 09/11/2023, influenced by a global economic slowdown, particularly in China, and a diminished risk premium from Middle Eastern tensions. WTI crude also followed the downtrend, settling at $77.37 a barrel on 08/11/2023.

  • Week's End: Towards the end of the week, on 10/11/2023, Brent crude saw a slight increase to $80.01 a barrel, while WTI crude edged up to $75.74 a barrel, as markets reacted to the U.S. Federal Reserve's signals on interest rates.

Key Points:

  • Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East initially influenced oil prices, but market focus shifted as supply concerns eased.

  • Economic Data: Slowing job growth in the U.S. and signs of economic slowdown in China contributed to speculations on oil demand and interest rate policies.

  • Supply Dynamics: OPEC's output decisions, reaffirmed cuts by major exporters, and U.S. inventory levels were closely monitored throughout the week.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 13/11/2023 to 20/11/2023


The oil market is expected to continue its volatility:

  • Geopolitical Developments: Despite the current shift away from Middle East tensions, the situation remains a potential factor for market sensitivity.

  • Economic Indicators: Chinese economic performance and U.S. Federal Reserve policies will be significant in shaping market expectations.

  • Supply Adjustments: OPEC+'s upcoming meeting and further announcements on output cuts will likely influence prices.

  • Demand Outlook: Weak demand signals from China may weigh on the market, while any positive economic data could provide uplift.

Market participants will be closely observing these elements as they seek to navigate another potentially turbulent week in oil markets.


12-Month Graph to Show the Movements Over the Last Year


Now, let's zoom out and take a look at the long-term trends in the energy market over the past year:


graph to show wholesale market movements in the last 12 months
 

Stay Updated with Our Weekly Market Reports


Check our weekly market reports regularly to stay updated on the latest UK energy market trends. This equips you with the knowledge to capitalise on savings opportunities and make smart contract renewal decisions for your business.


 
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