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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 08/01/2024

Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's definitive guide to the latest trends in the UK energy markets. Our weekly reports provide the insights you need to make informed decisions for your business's energy needs.


Weekly Energy Market Summary

Last week saw noteworthy changes in the energy market, with a downward trend in both gas and electricity prices due to a combination of warmer weather, strong supply, and increased renewable energy output.


image to show the percentage decrease in energy costs over the last week


 

Weekly Gas and Power Market Review: 02/01/2024 - 08/01/2024


The first full week of January 2024 in the UK energy market was characterised by a blend of decreasing and increasing trends in gas and electricity prices, influenced by weather conditions, LNG cargo arrivals, and supply adjustments.


graph to show wholesale market movements over the last week

Detailed Price Movements:

  • Start of the Week: Gas prices opened at 72.35 p/th and electricity at £80.00/MWh on 02/01/2024. The initial decrease in gas prices was driven by high winds and the expectation of several LNG cargoes arriving in the UK, resulting in healthy supplies and lower demand for gas-fired generation.

  • Midweek Trends: By 03/01/2024, gas prices rose to 80.00 p/th, and electricity prices followed suit, reaching £81.00/MWh. These increases were influenced by high gas storage and robust supplies despite demand not meeting expectations.

  • End of the Week: The week concluded on 05/01/2024 with gas prices further increasing to 89.00 p/th and electricity prices climbing to £92.00/MWh. This upward trend was supported by a stronger demand forecast, a tightening balance due to a cold spell, and reduced wind speeds affecting renewable energy output.




Current Market Rates

As of 08/01/2024, marking the start of the new week, gas prices were at 84.00 p/th and electricity prices at £91.50/MWh. These rates reflect the ongoing influence of dynamic supply conditions, weather-driven demand changes, and the energy market's response to operational adjustments in production facilities.


snapshot of wholesale market movements from the last week, month and year

Long-Term Trends

Understanding the past year's market movements can provide context for these weekly changes and help predict future trends.


zoomed out graph to show the last 12 months of wholesale market movements

Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

02/01/2024

72.35

80.00

03/01/2024

80.00

81.00

04/01/2024

84.50

84.25

05/01/2024

89.00

92.00

08/01/2024

84.00

91.50

WEEKLY AVERAGE

81.97

85.75

 

Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 08/01/2024 0 15/01/2024


As we enter a new week in the UK energy market, several key factors are expected to influence the trajectory of gas and electricity prices:

  1. Weather Conditions: The current weather patterns, particularly the continuation of the cold spell, are expected to play a significant role. If temperatures remain below seasonal norms, this could lead to increased heating demand, potentially impacting gas and electricity prices.

  2. Renewable Energy Output: The forecast for wind speeds will be crucial. A decrease in wind generation could lead to a greater reliance on gas-fired power, thereby influencing both gas and electricity prices. Conversely, higher wind outputs might help in balancing the demand for gas-fired electricity.

  3. LNG Cargo Arrivals: The scheduled arrival of LNG cargoes will be an important factor. A steady inflow of LNG can help in maintaining a robust supply, which might counterbalance any increase in demand due to colder weather.

  4. Supply Dynamics: The status of gas storage levels, along with the operational aspects of key supply infrastructures like LNG terminals and pipelines, will be closely monitored. Any disruptions or maintenance could affect supply levels and thereby influence prices.

  5. Demand Fluctuations: As businesses resume normal operations post-holiday season, there might be changes in consumption patterns. This return to regular activity levels could lead to an increase in energy demand.

  6. International Market Factors: Developments in international energy markets, including European gas demand and global oil prices, can indirectly impact UK energy prices. Market participants should be alert to such global dynamics.


Considering these factors, the upcoming week in the UK energy market could experience some volatility. Stakeholders should stay informed about the evolving weather conditions, supply dynamics, and international market trends, as these will likely be key drivers of price movements in the gas and electricity markets.


Your Weekly Guide


Our reports are designed to help businesses like yours navigate the complexities of the energy market. Stay informed to make the best decisions when negotiating your next energy contract


 

Oil Market Summary: 02/01/2024 to 08/01/2024


Overview:

The oil market experienced a week of significant fluctuations from the beginning of 2024, shaped by geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and varying inventory levels.


Start of the Week:

  • 02/01/2024: The year began with fluctuations in the carbon markets. EU ETS prices initially rose before trading softer, and UKAs showed a slight decrease.

  • Oil Market: There was no significant movement in oil prices on this date.

Midweek Trends:

  • 03/01/2024: Oil prices were volatile due to concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Red Sea following clashes between the US and Yemeni militants. This raised fears of rerouting tankers, which could delay deliveries and increase costs.

  • 04/01/2024: Oil prices climbed by approximately 3% due to a disruption at Libya’s Sharara oilfield and escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the intensified bombing in the Gaza Strip.

End of the Week:

  • 05/01/2024: Oil prices settled lower, influenced by large stock builds in gasoline and distillates, overshadowing a crude stock draw. Economic data also played a role in sending prices lower.

  • 08/01/2024: The week closed with oil prices settling higher, influenced by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's Middle East visit aimed at containing regional tensions. Employment data from the U.S. also contributed to the rise in prices.


Key Influencing Factors:

  • Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, significantly impacted oil supply perceptions.

  • Changes in global oil inventories, with fluctuations in gasoline, distillate stocks, and crude inventories affecting prices.

  • Economic indicators, including employment data from the U.S. and economic activity in the Euro zone, influenced market sentiment.


Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 08/01/2024 to 15/01/2024


The oil market is likely to continue experiencing volatility. Geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, will remain crucial. Economic data releases and the ongoing situation with oil inventories will also play a significant role in shaping market dynamics. Market participants should stay alert to these evolving factors, as they are expected to be key drivers of oil price movements in the coming week.


 

Stay Updated with Our Weekly Market Reports


Check our weekly market reports regularly to stay updated on the latest UK energy market trends. This equips you with the knowledge to capitalise on savings opportunities and make smart contract renewal decisions for your business.


image of a happy woman here, along with text highlighting the average savings per site in 2023.

 

Get Your Free Business Energy Quote Today


For tailored advice and to understand what current market rates mean for your business, contact us for a free quote.





Or Call us on 0151 459 3388


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