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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 07/08/2023

Your Weekly Guide to UK Energy Markets


Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report, your go-to source for the latest insights and updates on UK energy markets. As an energy brokerage company, we understand the importance of staying informed about the changing trends in the energy market. That's why we provide these weekly market reports, to help businesses like yours make informed decisions when negotiating your next energy contract.

 

Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report: Gas & Power Markets


From 31st July to 7th August 2023, the gas and power market exhibited a series of fluctuations, with trends leaning towards bearish tendencies at the beginning and signs of recovery towards the end.


On 31st July, prices traded bearishly due to a combination of soft fundamentals, a rise in wind generation in both the UK and Europe, and warmer weather forecasts. This affected the demand for gas from power plants.


Prices for the North Britain DA were recorded at 64.2 pence per therm, indicating a decline from previous days. However, there was no significant change observed on 1st August, with prices remaining almost consistent at 64.5 pence per therm. By the 2nd of August, the prices remained relatively steady but showed a slight increase to 66.5 pence per therm.


Come 3rd August, there was a noticeable upward trend as the prices rose to 69.2 pence per therm due to maintenance activities and changes in wind power generation. This trend peaked on the 4th, with prices hitting 75.5 pence per therm, mainly due to maintenance impacts and reduced wind power production forecasts.


The following week, on 7th August, a drop was recorded, with prices settling at 71.25 pence per therm, influenced by various factors such as increased gas flows, returning maintenance activities, and rising temperatures.


Key points from the week's activity:

  • Bearish beginnings: The start of the period showed a bearish trend, with prices falling due to increased wind generation and weather patterns.

  • Mid-week surge: Despite the initial decline, there was a notable price increase around the 3rd and 4th of August.

  • End of week adjustments: The week concluded with prices slightly decreasing, but still at a relatively high level compared to the start.


Graph of the Last Week's Movements:


Let's take a visual look at the past week's gas and power market movements


weekly wholesale market movements
snapshot of market movements

Forecast


Considering the patterns from the previous week, the upcoming days might experience a stabilisation in prices, particularly with maintenance activities wrapping up and the return of gas flows. The warmer weather forecast and potential LNG resumption from summer breaks might also influence prices, leading to possible decreases. However, any unplanned outages or disruptions could introduce volatility into the market.

 

Table of the Movements on Each Day in the Last Week:


Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

31/07/2023

65.50

71.60

01/08/2023

65.00

70.75

02/08/2023

67.47

62.50

03/08/2023

74.75

78.00

04/08/2023

70.50

75.00

07/08/2023

71.75

73.25

WEEKLY AVERAGE

69.16

71.85

 

Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report: Oil Markets


From 31st July to 7th August 2023, the global oil market experienced notable fluctuations, with overall trends leaning towards bullish tendencies. On 31st July, optimism fueled oil prices due to anticipated healthy demand, policy expectations, and supply cuts from the OPEC+ alliance, resulting in a fifth consecutive week of gains. Brent crude and WTI crude settled at $84.99 and $80.58 a barrel, respectively.


By the 1st of August, there was a substantial rise in oil prices due to tightening global supply, especially with demand surge in the U.S., causing prices to achieve a three-month high. Brent crude closed at $85.43 and $85.56 for October and September contracts, while WTI crude settled at $81.80.


On 2nd August, despite the previous bullish movement, there was a minor decline in oil prices. The reasons included a strengthening dollar and potential profit-taking, leading Brent to settle at $84.91 and WTI at $81.37.


The decline became more evident on 3rd August when oil prices decreased by about 2%, despite a significant drop in U.S. crude stocks, influenced by factors such as a downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating and pulled offers to purchase oil. Brent settled at $83.20 and WTI at $79.49.


4th August marked a rebound with a 2% gain, driven by decisions from Saudi Arabia and Russia to maintain supply cuts. This led Brent to settle at $85.14 and WTI at $81.55.


Lastly, on 7th August, the bullish trend continued with Brent and WTI settling at $86.24 and $82.82 respectively, mainly influenced by the extended supply cuts from top producers and undersupply concerns.


Key points from the week's activity:

  • Positive outset: The week started on a bullish note, influenced by healthy demand predictions and supply cuts.

  • Brief Interruption: Midweek presented slight declines, especially after the U.S. government's credit downgrade and a stronger dollar.

  • Strong Recovery: Towards the end of the week, the market saw considerable gains, primarily driven by decisions from major oil producers.


Forecast


Given the recent trends, the following week may witness a consolidation or minor corrections in oil prices. The continued supply cuts from major producers, coupled with rising global demand, especially from the U.S., might maintain the bullish sentiments. However, other macroeconomic factors like central bank decisions, the U.S. credit scenario, and potential geopolitical tensions could introduce uncertainties.


The slight downturn in the euro zone's business activity and decisions from central banks, like the Bank of England's interest rate hike, might influence the market's sentiment. As such, while the outlook remains generally bullish, traders should exercise caution and closely monitor geopolitical and economic news.


 

12-Month Graph to Show the Movements Over the Last Year


Now, let's zoom out and take a look at the long-term trends in the energy market over the past year:


12 month market updates
12 month market updates

 

Stay Updated with Our Weekly Market Reports


By regularly checking our weekly market reports, you can stay updated on the latest trends in UK energy markets, gain insights into potential opportunities for savings, and make informed decisions on your next energy contract renewal.


 

Get Your Free Quote Today


Are you ready to secure the best energy contract renewal for your business? Get in touch with us today to see what options are available for your next renewals. Click the button below to request your free quote, and discover how our expertise can enhance your business's energy strategy.


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