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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 06/11/2023


image of arrows point up and down to show the direction of the wholesale energy market over the last week

Your Weekly Guide to UK Energy Markets


Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report, your go-to source for the latest insights and updates on UK energy markets. As an energy brokerage company, we understand the importance of staying informed about the changing trends in the energy market. That's why we provide these weekly market reports, to help businesses like yours make informed decisions when negotiating your next energy contract.

 

Weekly Energy Market Review: 30/10/2023 - 06/11/2023


The energy market last week exhibited a dynamic interplay of factors, with gas and electricity prices showing notable fluctuations.

  • Start of the Week: The week opened on 30/10/2023 with gas prices at 125.00 p/th and electricity prices at £80.75/MWh. The market was poised for a week of potential volatility amid varying supply and demand dynamics.

  • Midweek Movements: Prices saw a downward trend midweek, with gas prices dipping to 92.50 p/th and electricity prices to £68.75/MWh by 01/11/2023. The bearish sentiment was driven by a surplus in LNG sendouts and a long system opening, despite the geopolitical risks in the background.

  • End of the Week: The week concluded on 03/11/2023 with a slight recovery in gas prices to 101.00 p/th, while electricity prices surged to £125.00/MWh. The uptick in electricity prices could be attributed to a combination of factors including lower wind generation and cooler temperatures leading to increased demand.

  • Start of the New Week: The new week began on 06/11/2023 with gas prices at 104.00 p/th and electricity prices at £90.25/MWh. This opening scenario reflects a market that remains sensitive to both immediate supply conditions and broader geopolitical concerns.

Throughout the week, the market grappled with a mix of bearish and bullish signals. The bearish factors included high wind output and stable temperatures, while bullish pressures emerged from reduced UK continental shelf production and increased local consumption. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Gaza, continued to inject uncertainty into the market.



Graph of the Last Week's Movements:


Let's take a visual look at the past week's gas and power market movements


graph to show the gas and electric wholesale market movements over the last 7 days
snapshot of the energy market over the last week, month and year

Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 06/11/2023 to 13/11/2023

As we enter a new week in the UK energy market, several key factors are poised to influence the trajectory of gas and electricity prices:

  • Weather Forecast: The UK is bracing for a dip in temperatures, which is forecasted to fall below seasonal norms. This change is likely to increase heating demand, potentially exerting upward pressure on energy prices.

  • Geopolitical Developments: The market remains sensitive to the Middle East tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Any developments could induce volatility in the market, affecting supply perceptions and price stability.

  • Supply and Storage: The UK system's supply balance will be crucial, especially with the expected decrease in LNG sendouts and the extension of pipeline maintenance. With European gas storage near capacity, the market's ability to absorb supply shocks may be limited.

  • Renewables Output: Wind generation forecasts will also be a significant factor, with higher output potentially reducing reliance on gas-fired electricity and exerting bearish pressure on prices.

  • Maintenance and Imports: Ongoing maintenance and the status of import pipelines and LNG cargoes will be closely watched, as they play a critical role in determining supply levels.

  • Market Sentiment: Traders will likely continue to price in a risk premium due to geopolitical risks, while also reacting to immediate supply-demand fundamentals and storage levels.

Considering these elements, the upcoming week could see heightened volatility in energy prices. Stakeholders should monitor the evolving situation closely and be prepared to respond to rapid changes in the market.

 

Table of the Movements on Each Day in the Last Week:


Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

30/10/2023

125.00

80.75

31/10/2023

110.75

76.50

01/11/2023

92.50

68.75

02/11/2023

99.75

65.00

03/11/2023

101.00

125.00

06/11/2023

104.00

90.25

WEEKLY AVERAGE

105.50

84.38

 

Oil Market Summary: 30/10/2023 to 06/11/2023


Start of the Week: The week opened with oil prices on the rise due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures climbed to $90.48 a barrel, while WTI crude reached $85.54 a barrel, both increasing by approximately 3% from the previous close.


Midweek Movements: Prices fluctuated midweek, with Brent crude dipping to $87.93 a barrel and WTI crude to $83.21 a barrel by 27th October. The market reacted to easing fears of a wider Middle East conflict and signs of weakening U.S. demand.


Week's End: The week ended with Brent crude futures at $84.89 a barrel and WTI crude futures at $80.51 a barrel on 06/11/2023. Prices settled lower by more than 2%, with supply concerns alleviated and U.S. jobs data influencing market expectations regarding interest rate hikes.


Key Points:

  • Geopolitical Tensions: The conflict between Israel and Hamas, with potential for a wider Middle East conflict, influenced oil prices throughout the week.

  • Economic Data: Economic slowdown signs from the U.S. and easing labor market conditions led to speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, impacting oil demand forecasts.

  • Supply Dynamics: OPEC output changes and U.S. production levels were closely monitored, contributing to price movements.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week: The oil market is poised for continued volatility. Geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, will remain a critical factor. Economic data releases and policy decisions from major economies, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, will be significant in shaping market sentiment. Market participants should brace for potential price swings as these factors interplay.


12-Month Graph to Show the Movements Over the Last Year


Now, let's zoom out and take a look at the long-term trends in the energy market over the past year:


graph to show the wholesale market movements over the last 12 months
 

Stay Updated with Our Weekly Market Reports


Check our weekly market reports regularly to stay updated on the latest UK energy market trends. This equips you with the knowledge to capitalise on savings opportunities and make smart contract renewal decisions for your business.


 

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