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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 03/06/2024

Welcome to our 'Weekly Energy Market' update, where we dissect the latest trends and changes from 28th May to 03rd June 2024. Your guide through the fluctuations of the last week: revealing trends, insights, and forecasts in the UK energy and oil markets.

image to show how much the energy market has moved in the last week

Weekly Energy Market At A Glance


Gas Market Overview


The gas market experienced notable fluctuations throughout the week. Here's a summary of the key movements and factors influencing the market:


  • 28th May 2024: After closing at levels last seen at the start of the year and trading higher for the 8th consecutive day, the NBP Day-Ahead (DA) price closed 3.75p/th lower at 82.75p/th. This was due to a looser UK balance, improved renewable outlook, and increased supply from Norway. Profit-taking was likely after previous highs due to OMV concerns.

  • 29th May 2024: Prices continued to decline, closing 1.35p/th lower at 81.75p/th. Weaker demand, comfortable supply, and likely profit-taking contributed to this decrease. Local demand remained flat but was expected to fall over the weekend, with gas-for-power demand down due to increased wind generation.

  • 30th May 2024: The NBP DA increased by 0.85p/th to close at 82.20p/th. A rangebound day was expected, with more bias towards a slight decrease towards 80p/th. Local demand remained flat but was forecasted to fall. Storage injections were required to balance the system.

  • 31st May 2024: The NBP increased by 1.25p/th, closing at 83.50p/th, the highest of the week. Sentiment was driven by the front month being over 4% higher ahead of contract expiry and rising Asian LNG prices. Local demand was forecasted to be lower, while rising Norwegian production provided support.

  • 3rd June 2024: The NBP traded on par at 83.5p/th from the previous close. Lower local demand was offset by an increase in gas-for-power. UKCS maintenance and overall balance tightening added support. Supply-side uncertainty remains a bullish factor as the storage filling season begins.


Electricity Market Overview


Electricity prices followed similar trends influenced by gas prices, renewable energy output, and market balance:


  • 28th May 2024: £75.75/MWh

  • 29th May 2024: £71.50/MWh

  • 30th May 2024: £65.00/MWh

  • 31st May 2024: £75.00/MWh

  • 3rd June 2024: £72.50/MWh


Weekly Summary and Insights


The 7-day average prices were:

  • Gas: 84.0p/th

  • Electricity: £72.75/MWh


 

Key Influences:


  • Geopolitical Events: Ongoing tensions and news-driven events continued to impact market sentiment.

  • Supply and Demand Dynamics: Variations in local demand, wind generation, and Norwegian production significantly influenced prices.

  • Profit-Taking: Periodic profit-taking contributed to price fluctuations, particularly following periods of sustained increases.

 

How Does This Compare to Last Week?


This week's gas and power markets followed similar volatility patterns to last week but showed slightly different influences and outcomes. Gas prices saw lower peaks and more stability towards the end of the week, while electricity prices followed the trend but with significant mid-week dips. External factors such as geopolitical events, local demand changes, and maintenance schedules played crucial roles in shaping market movements.


 

Looking Forward: Market Forecast


Looking ahead, several factors will influence the market:

  • Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing tensions and new developments in the Middle East could impact supply security and market sentiment.

  • Weather Conditions: Expected higher wind speeds could reduce gas demand for power generation, potentially stabilising prices.

  • Supply Updates: Any changes in maintenance schedules or unexpected supply disruptions will be critical to monitor.

graph to show last 12 months wholesale market movements

This image shows the market movements over the last 12 months, providing a broader context for the recent price changes. It highlights the seasonal volatility and the impact of external factors such as maintenance schedules and geopolitical events.


Conclusion

This week’s energy market has been marked by fluctuations primarily driven by supply concerns, maintenance schedules, and varying demand. While the overall outlook remains relatively stable, factors such as the expected LNG recovery and changes in continental supply dynamics will play crucial roles in shaping the market in the coming weeks.

 

Weekly Oil Market Update: 28th May - 3rd June 2024

Overview

This past week, oil markets experienced a mix of gains and declines influenced by geopolitical events, economic indicators, and inventory levels. Here's a detailed look at the developments:


Oil Market at a Glance

  • 28th May 2024: Oil prices rose over 1% in muted trade due to public holidays in Britain and the U.S. Brent crude settled at $83.12/barrel, up 1.2%, and WTI crude at $78.65/barrel, up 93 cents. The week was downbeat, characterized by concerns over U.S. interest rates and inflation.

  • 29th May 2024: Oil prices gained more than $1/barrel, with Brent at $84.22/barrel and WTI at $79.83/barrel, driven by expectations that OPEC+ would maintain crude supply curbs and the start of the U.S. summer driving season.

  • 30th May 2024: Prices eased about 1% on concerns over weak U.S. gasoline demand and economic data suggesting the U.S. Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for longer. Brent fell to $83.60/barrel, and WTI to $79.23/barrel.

  • 31st May 2024: Oil prices fell again due to reports of weak fuel demand in the U.S. and a jump in gasoline and distillate fuel stockpiles. Brent dropped to $81.86/barrel, and WTI to $77.91/barrel.

  • 3rd June 2024: Oil prices fell further, posting a weekly loss as investors awaited the OPEC+ meeting. Brent for July delivery dropped to $81.62/barrel, and WTI to $76.99/barrel. Saudi Arabia's invitation for an in-person meeting in Riyadh added to market uncertainty.


Anomalies and Key Drivers


  1. Geopolitical Impact: Public holidays in major markets and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting contributed to price fluctuations.

  2. Interest Rates and Inflation: Speculations about U.S. interest rate policies and their impact on inflation played a significant role in daily price movements.

  3. Inventory Changes: Fluctuations in oil inventories at global trading hubs, including a surprise jump in U.S. gasoline and distillate fuel inventories, affected market optimism and price trends.


Conclusion

The oil market has seen a mix of price increases and declines over the past week, heavily influenced by economic indicators, interest rate speculations, and inventory data. While prices rebounded slightly mid-week, the market remains sensitive to external factors, particularly the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. As we move into the next week, monitoring geopolitical developments, economic data, and policy decisions will be essential to anticipate market movements.


 

Advice for Your Business

For advice that fits with the latest market situation, get in touch for a free business energy quote. Our team at the Smart Energy Company is ready to help you make informed choices, tailored to the market’s current state.

 

Get Your Free Business Energy Quote Today


Keep visiting our blog for weekly updates. If you have any questions or need more detailed advice, we’re just a call away. We’ll help you navigate through the market changes with ease and confidence.





Or Call us on 0151 459 3388


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