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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 03/01/2024

Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's definitive guide to the latest trends in the UK energy markets. Our weekly reports provide the insights you need to make informed decisions for your business's energy needs.

Weekly Energy Market Summary

The extended holiday period saw a diverse range of fluctuations in the energy market, marked by a general downward trend in gas prices while electricity prices experienced notable volatility. Factors influencing these trends included warmer weather conditions, strong gas supply, and fluctuating renewable energy output.

image to show percentage differences over the holiday period


Extended Holiday Gas and Power Market Review: 21/12/2023 - 03/01/2024

The period began with gas and electricity prices at moderate levels but experienced various shifts due to changing weather conditions, supply dynamics, and holiday trading patterns.

graph to show the wholesale market movements in the last week

Detailed Price Movements:

  • Start of the Period: Gas prices opened at 73.40 p/th and electricity at £38.25/MWh on 21/12/2023, influenced by mild and windy weather.

  • Holiday Eve Trends: By 22/12/2023, gas prices slightly increased to 73.50 p/th, while electricity prices rose to £55.00/MWh, supported by forecasts of colder weather.

  • Post-Christmas Market: After the Christmas break, on 27/12/2023, gas prices increased to 81.40 p/th, while electricity prices dropped dramatically to £34.00/MWh.

  • Start of the New Year: The new year began on 02/01/2024 with gas prices lower at 72.35 p/th and electricity prices at £80.00/MWh.

  • End of the Review Period: The period concluded on 03/01/2024 with gas prices at 76.50 p/th and electricity prices at £81.00/MWh.

The fluctuations were driven by mild weather reducing heating demand, high winds boosting renewable energy output, and LNG sendouts maintaining a strong supply.

Current Market Rates

  • On 03/01/2024, the market saw gas prices at 76.50 p/th and electricity prices at £81.00/MWh, reflecting the ongoing influence of varied supply and demand factors.

summary of market movements over the last week, month and year

Long-Term Trends

Understanding the past year's market movements can provide context for these weekly changes and help predict future trends.

graph to show last 12 month wholesale market movements


Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 03/01/2024 to 10/01/2024

As we move forward in the UK energy market, several key factors are expected to influence the trajectory of gas and electricity prices:

  • Weather Conditions: Mild temperatures are likely to continue, potentially leading to reduced heating demand.

  • Renewable Energy Output: Fluctuating wind speeds could impact renewable energy generation.

  • Supply Dynamics: Continued strong supply from Norwegian gas flows and LNG sendouts.

  • Maintenance and Outages: Impact of maintenance schedules and return of facilities from outages.

  • International Market Influences: Global LNG availability and European demand could affect UK prices.

  • Domestic Consumption Patterns: Post-holiday shifts in industrial and residential consumption.

These factors suggest a possibility of continued stability in prices, subject to changes in weather and international market developments.

Your Weekly Guide

Our reports are designed to help businesses like yours navigate the complexities of the energy market. Stay informed to make the best decisions when negotiating your next energy contract


Oil Market Summary: 21/12/2023 - 03/01/2024

During the extended holiday period, the oil market witnessed various fluctuations influenced by geopolitical events, OPEC dynamics, and production data.

  • 21/12/2023: Oil prices edged higher amid concerns about global trade disruptions and Middle East tensions, specifically attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Yemen's Houthi forces. Brent crude futures rose by 0.6% to $79.70 a barrel, and WTI crude increased by 0.4% to $74.22 a barrel. Gains were limited due to a surprise rise in U.S. crude inventory, unexpected fuel stock gains, and record domestic oil production.

  • 22/12/2023: Prices fell as Angola announced its intention to exit OPEC, casting doubts over the group's efforts to bolster prices by limiting global supplies. Brent crude settled at $79.39 a barrel, while WTI crude ended at $73.89 a barrel. The U.S. also reported a record crude output of 13.3 million bpd.

  • 02/01/2024: The first trading day of the new year saw carbon prices in the EU ETS and UKAs markets showing mixed movements. The EU ETS ICE Dec-24 contract opened at €80.68/t and later softened to €77.33/t. In the UKAs market, the ICE Dec-24 contract slightly declined to £45.10/t.

  • 03/01/2024: Oil prices experienced volatility due to heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions through the Suez Canal following clashes between the US and Yemeni militants. This tension raised the possibility of rerouting tankers, potentially delaying deliveries and increasing costs. In the carbon markets, the EU ETS and UKAs prices showed varying trends, with the EU ETS contract trading at €77.18/t and the UKAs at £45.50/t.

The period was characterized by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in the oil market, with factors such as OPEC dynamics and production levels influencing prices. These developments underscore the complexity of global oil markets and the range of factors that can impact pricing and supply dynamics.


Stay Updated with Our Weekly Market Reports

Check our weekly market reports regularly to stay updated on the latest UK energy market trends. This equips you with the knowledge to capitalise on savings opportunities and make smart contract renewal decisions for your business.

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