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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - UK Energy & Oil Markets - 02/04/2024

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Our latest comprehensive analysis for your weekly energy market reports, crafted to illuminate the path for your business's energy decisions in the week of 25th March to 02nd April 2024.


Weekly Energy Market at a Glance

This past week, the energy sector experienced notable volatility:

  • Electricity prices saw variations, peaking mid-week before adjusting ahead of the bank holiday, ending at £61.50/MWh as of 02/04/2024's opening data.

  • Gas prices demonstrated similar fluctuations, initially trading bullish early in the week due to supply concerns, but softened towards the week's end, opening at 65.50 p/th on 02/04/2024.


Detailed Market Dynamics


Gas and Power: A Closer Examination

  • Early Week Trends: The NBP Day-Ahead contract showed a bullish stance early in the week, closing higher on Friday compared to the previous day. The UK's weather forecast played a pivotal role, with temperatures expected to hover around seasonal norms, indirectly influencing gas for power demand.


  • Supply Adjustments: Maintenance activities and capacity tests in the Vesterled pipeline affected Norwegian flows to the UK, impacting the supply side early in the week. However, unexpected cancellations of maintenance and adjustments in LNG sendout provided some relief.


  • Weather and Demand Fluctuations: As the week progressed, rising wind speeds contributed to a decrease in Gas-for-Power demand, with the weather forecast predicting milder temperatures from April onwards, exerting a bearish pressure on prices.


  • End-of-Week Movements: Heading towards the Easter bank holiday, the market balanced out with softer demand and strong supply signals leading to a looser market, reflected in the dip in NBP DA prices.

snapshot of today's energy prices clearly, showing how they compare to yesterday, last week, last month, and last year.

Weekly Weather Watch and Its Impact

The fluctuating weather, particularly the warmer forecasts towards the week's end and into the next, has started to shape the demand outlook significantly. With wind speeds contributing to a lower Gas-for-Power demand mid-week and expectations of a looser market balance due to strong supply and softer demand post-Easter, the market is entering April with an eye on the weather as a key determinant.

 

Looking Forward: Post-Easter Market Trends

Post-Easter, the energy market is expected to experience a bearish environment, thanks in part to the anticipated milder weather and robust supply from Norway and local outputs. With no scheduled maintenance at UK fields immediately after the holiday and storage facilities like Rough set to switch to injections, the market appears poised for a period of adjustment and potentially lower prices.

 

A Deeper Dive: Daily Dynamics

Last week’s daily prices showed a clear upward trend, ending with a weekly average gas price of 68.80 p/th and electricity at 64.53 £/MWh. Keeping track of these daily shifts is essential for planning your energy buying.

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

25/03/2024

73.50

70.90

26/03/2024

68.75

63.00

27/03/2024

67.75

57.50

28/03/2024

68.48

69.75

02/04/2024

65.50

61.50

WEEKLY AVERAGE

68.80

64.53

The week concluded with a general decline in both gas and electricity prices from the week’s start, underlining a transitioning market as it adapts to seasonal changes and supply dynamics.


Navigating the Post-Holiday Energy Landscape

As businesses return to full operation following the Easter break, staying informed on these fluctuations and underlying factors will be key to navigating the energy market effectively. The upcoming week promises further developments shaped by weather patterns and supply stability, offering both challenges and opportunities in energy procurement and strategy.

 

Oil Market Brief

The oil market experienced notable fluctuations this past week, reflecting a blend of geopolitical developments, supply adjustments, and economic indicators. Here's an overview of the key movements and factors influencing oil prices from the end of March into early April.


Oil Market at a Glance


  • End-of-Week Movements: Oil prices concluded the week on a varied note, with Brent crude and WTI experiencing slight adjustments amid talks of a ceasefire in Gaza. Despite these dips, the prospect of easing interest rates in the U.S. and a decrease in the U.S. rig count provided underlying support.

  • Midweek Trends: As the week progressed, geopolitical tensions, specifically between Russia and Ukraine, alongside orders from the Russian government to curb oil output, propelled prices upward. These gains were somewhat tempered by the global call for a ceasefire in Gaza, showcasing the market's sensitivity to international relations and supply dynamics.

  • Closing the Week: Oil prices surged again towards the week's end, driven by OPEC+'s ongoing production cuts, continuous attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, and a declining U.S. rig count, hinting at tighter crude supply in the near term.


Detailed Market Dynamics


Supply Side Adjustments

The Russian government's directive to reduce oil production underscored the week's supply-side narrative, contributing to oil's price resilience despite global efforts for peace in Gaza. Additionally, the surprise jump in U.S. crude and gasoline stocks midweek briefly pressured prices, highlighting the impact of domestic factors on the global oil market.


Demand Fluctuations and Economic Indicators

On the demand front, the oil market benefited from positive economic growth data from the U.S., coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions that spurred concerns over global supply chains. These factors, combined with anticipations of sustained production cuts by OPEC+, painted a bullish picture for oil as the month concluded.


Looking Forward: Market Outlook

As April begins, the oil market is poised to navigate through a complex landscape of geopolitical tensions, supply adjustments, and economic growth indicators. The recent upswing in prices underscores the market's current bullish sentiment, yet traders remain vigilant, aware that shifts in geopolitical dynamics or economic policies could quickly alter the market's direction.


Navigating the Volatile Oil Landscape

For businesses and investors, understanding these nuanced market movements is crucial for informed decision-making. As we move further into the second quarter of 2024, staying abreast of these developments will be key to navigating the volatile oil landscape effectively.


 

Your Energy Guide

Our Weekly Wholesale Market Update gives a side-by-side comparison of the gas and electric market increases. For a wider view, the 12-month report sheds light on the bigger picture.


graph to show last 12 months wholesale market movements

For day-to-day updates and detailed analysis, turn to our Daily Energy Market Reports. They are a valuable resource for understanding the market.


Advice for Your Business

For advice that fits with the latest market situation, get in touch for a free business energy quote. Our team at the Smart Energy Company is ready to help you make informed choices, tailored to the market’s current state.

 

Get Your Free Business Energy Quote Today


Keep visiting our blog for weekly updates. If you have any questions or need more detailed advice, we’re just a call away. We’ll help you navigate through the market changes with ease and confidence.





Or Call us on 0151 459 3388


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