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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report 26/06/2023: Insights on UK Energy Markets

Your Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - 26/06/2023


Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's Weekly Wholesale Energy Market, your go-to source for the latest insights and updates on UK energy markets.


We understand that keeping up with the changing trends in the energy market can be a daunting task for businesses, which is why we provide weekly market reports to help you stay informed. Our team of experts provides analysis on the latest updates on the energy market, including changes in supply and demand, natural gas prices, and renewable energy availability.


As an energy brokerage company, we understand the importance of securing the best energy contract renewal for your business. Our weekly market reports provide you with valuable insights to help you make informed decisions when negotiating your next energy contract.


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Snapshot of market movements


snapshot of movements


Oil and Markets - Weekly Energy Report


In the last week, oil markets have been fluctuating due to a variety of factors such as OPEC+ production cuts, Chinese demand, and global economic growth. Oil prices started the week with gains due to renewed hopes of growing Chinese demand and OPEC+ production cuts. However, prices fell on Monday due to bearish fears of demand recovery faltering in China and revised GDP growth forecasts from some banks. The rest of the week saw sideways trading and then a climb on Thursday due to raised expectation of crop shortfalls around the globe which could increase oil demand. However, oil prices plummeted on Friday due to concerns over the economy and fuel demand in the wake of more rate hikes from the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve, as well as the geopolitical turmoil in Russia over the weekend.


In addition, we can also see that global equities have been affected by the same macroeconomic concerns as the oil markets, with fluctuations in prices throughout the week due to rate hikes from central banks and fears of slowing economic growth in China. The S&P 500 and European equities saw losses throughout the week, with some indices hitting multi-month lows.


Overall, it seems that the oil markets and global equities are closely tied to global economic growth and macroeconomic concerns, with any news regarding Chinese demand or central bank policies likely to have an exaggerated effect on prices in the near term.


Forecast


There are several factors that could potentially impact the oil markets and global equities this week. Firstly, ongoing geopolitical turmoil in Russia could continue to affect global equities, particularly if the situation escalates further. Additionally, any news regarding OPEC+ production cuts or Chinese demand could cause fluctuations in oil prices.


Looking towards global equities, further interest rate hikes from central banks could continue to cause losses in the markets. Additionally, any news regarding global economic growth or Chinese GDP forecasts could impact investor sentiment and market performance.


Overall, it is difficult to predict with certainty how the markets will perform this week as they are heavily influenced by external factors that can fluctuate rapidly. However, it is likely that ongoing concerns regarding global economic growth and central bank policies will continue to impact the oil markets and global equities in the near term.


Gas and Power - Weekly Energy Report


In the last week, we can see that gas and power markets had a volatile week, with fluctuations in prices due to a combination of factors including outages in gas facilities in Norway, news regarding subsidies for coal plants in the EU, and instability in Russia.

At the beginning of the week, gas and power markets experienced a cooldown after a volatile week of upwards movements. However, prices quickly turned volatile again. The failure of EU countries to agree on new rules for the bloc's power market, with the greatest point of contention being extended subsidies for coal plants, also impacted market sentiment and led to flat trading for UK and EU markets.


Throughout the week, gas markets continued to shed risk and power markets saw similar fluctuations, with pricing heavily influenced by gas prices. Prices dropped again on Friday following the string of volatile sessions on the back of the Norwegian gas facility maintenance/outages.


Additionally, instability in Russia following Prigozhin's attempted coup has shocked markets, and we may see a short-term upturn in response as markets weigh the risks to LNG supply.


Overall, the gas and power markets may continue to experience fluctuations in the near term due to ongoing geopolitical risks, outages in gas facilities, and news regarding subsidies for coal plants in the EU. The impact of these factors on market sentiment and pricing will likely continue to be closely watched by analysts and investors alike.


Forecast


It is possible that gas and power markets will continue to experience fluctuations in the upcoming week. The gas market in particular may still be influenced by outages in gas facilities in Norway, which could lead to further volatility in gas prices. Moreover, the ongoing instability in Russia could continue to put upward pressure on gas prices if there are concerns of supply disruptions.


Regarding power markets, news regarding subsidies for coal plants in the EU could lead to further debate and potentially impact market sentiment. Additionally, it is possible that the market will continue to monitor developments in the situation in Russia and how it may affect the wider energy market.


However, it is also worth noting that prices have started to de-risk slightly, with medium to long-term futures losing ground throughout the week. It is possible that this trend may continue in the coming week, especially if there are no significant developments in the market that affect supply or demand.


Overall, the gas and power markets may remain volatile in the upcoming week, but there are signs that some of the risk may have been priced in. As always, it will be important to closely monitor the market for any new developments that could impact pricing and overall market sentiment.


 

Jargon Buster

  • Bearish - In relation to energy markets, bearish means that there is an expectation of a decrease in the demand for energy products, or an increase in the supply of energy products, which would result in a decrease in the price of energy products. This could be due to a variety of factors such as a slower economic growth, overproduction of oil and gas, or the emergence of alternative sources of energy. A bearish outlook for energy markets suggests that companies operating in the industry may struggle to maintain profits and may be forced to cut costs or reduce production.


  • Bullish - In relation to energy markets, bullish means that there is an expectation of an increase in demand for energy products, or a decrease in the supply of energy products, which would result in an increase in the price of energy products. This could be due to various reasons such as a growing global economy, production cuts by major oil-producing countries, geopolitical tensions that impact the supply, or a shift towards renewable energy sources. A bullish outlook for energy markets suggests that companies operating in the industry may see increased profits and may be able to invest in new projects to meet the growing demand for energy products.


weekly graph

How the market has opened each day:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

19/06/2023

84.00

101.00

20/06/2023

101.73

107.00

21/06/2023

92.75

109.00

22/06/2023

85.00

95.50

23/06/2023

79.80

84.00

26/06/2023

88.50

93.75


7 day averages


Gas (pence per therm) 88.63

Electric (£ per MWh) 98.38



12 month wholesale market updates


 


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