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Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report 19/06/2023: Insights on UK Energy Markets

Your Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - 19/06/2023


Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's Weekly Wholesale Energy Market, your go-to source for the latest insights and updates on UK energy markets.


We understand that keeping up with the changing trends in the energy market can be a daunting task for businesses, which is why we provide weekly market reports to help you stay informed. Our team of experts provides analysis on the latest updates on the energy market, including changes in supply and demand, natural gas prices, and renewable energy availability.


As an energy brokerage company, we understand the importance of securing the best energy contract renewal for your business. Our weekly market reports provide you with valuable insights to help you make informed decisions when negotiating your next energy contract.


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Snapshot of market movements

snapshot of energy market movements

Oil and Markets - Weekly Energy Report


Over the course of the week from 12/06/2023 to 19/06/2023, the oil market experienced significant fluctuations due to several factors.


On 12/06/2023, Brent crude suffered a decline of 1.5% to $74.20 per barrel after Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast, citing increased supplies to be expected in the coming year. This negative trend, coupled with concerns over future demand, caused investors to panic, leading to a massive sell-off in the market.


The market saw a rebound on 14/06/2023, as Brent crude climbed by 3.4% to $74.29 per barrel, after China’s central bank dropped its short-term lending rate for the first time in almost a year, aiming to stimulate the hesitant post-COVID 19 recovery of the world’s largest crude importer.


However, the market experienced another downturn on 15/06/2023, with Brent crude dropping by 1.5% to $74.20 per barrel after the announcement of the Federal Reserve's expectation of future interest rate hikes, raising concerns about future demand in the market. Additionally, data showing an unexpectedly large build-up in U.S. crude oil stocks added to market uncertainty.


On 16/06/2023, Brent crude saw a significant upswing, rising by 3.4% to $75.67 per barrel, with investors drawing support from positive economic data, starting with reports that retail sales in the US rose. Then, higher than expected unemployment claims weakened the dollar, making the commodity cheaper for overseas buyers. Moreover, China’s oil refinery data revealed a 15.4% increase in throughput in May, signalling a demand recovery in progress in China.


Finally, by the end of the week, Brent crude futures experienced a 1.2% gain on 19/06/2023, settling at $76.61 per barrel. Investors marked renewed hopes of growing Chinese demand after China’s refinery throughput increase in May and support from OPEC output cuts and additional Saudi cuts.


In conclusion, the oil market has remained volatile over the week, being influenced by global economic policies, geopolitical tensions, production shifts, and demand-supply dynamics. While investors remain positive about the market's future prospects, they remain watchful as global economies continue to recover and demand-supply dynamics change.


Gas and Power - Weekly Energy Report


Over the week from 12/06/2023 to 19/06/2023, wholesale gas and power markets in the UK and Europe witnessed significant fluctuations due to various factors.


On 12/06/2023, UK wholesale gas prices experienced an upswing, supported by extended Norwegian gas field outages and poor renewable generation forecasts for the week. Meanwhile, the power market faced a similar trend, with short-term futures appreciating by 12.7%, while long-term futures priced in risks created by supply fears within the gas market.


The trend reversed on 13/06/2023, as wholesale gas in the UK witnessed a decline, although long-term futures still experienced increases in prices. The power market faced similar trends, with short-term futures dropping while long-term futures continued to price in supply fears, exacerbated by reduced LNG flows and poor wind output.


On 14/06/2023, gas markets experienced a sudden upswing following the news that the outage at the Nyhamna gas processing plant would be extended to 15 July, while power markets responded similarly, albeit more mutedly.


Wholesale gas prices rose again on 15/06/2023 driven by extended maintenance outages at Norwegian gas plants and fields, which saw Nyhamna gas processing plant and two related gas fields shut down. The NBP and TTF front-month contracts experienced approximately 7.5% hikes.


Finally, on 19/06/2023, the gas and power markets witnessed a cooling-down period, after a volatile week of upward movements.


 

Jargon Buster

  • Bearish - In relation to energy markets, bearish means that there is an expectation of a decrease in the demand for energy products, or an increase in the supply of energy products, which would result in a decrease in the price of energy products. This could be due to a variety of factors such as a slower economic growth, overproduction of oil and gas, or the emergence of alternative sources of energy. A bearish outlook for energy markets suggests that companies operating in the industry may struggle to maintain profits and may be forced to cut costs or reduce production.


  • Bullish - In relation to energy markets, bullish means that there is an expectation of an increase in demand for energy products, or a decrease in the supply of energy products, which would result in an increase in the price of energy products. This could be due to various reasons such as a growing global economy, production cuts by major oil-producing countries, geopolitical tensions that impact the supply, or a shift towards renewable energy sources. A bullish outlook for energy markets suggests that companies operating in the industry may see increased profits and may be able to invest in new projects to meet the growing demand for energy products.


Weekly wholesale movements

How the market has opened each day:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

12/06/2023

77.75

85.50

13/06/2023

95.25

86.50

14/06/2023

97.30

98.00

16/06/2023

101.90

107.50

16/06/2023

88.50

99.95

19/06/2023

81.00

101.00


7 day averages


Gas (pence per therm) 90.28

Electric (£ per MWh) 96.41



12 month wholesale energy movements



 


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