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Monthly Gas and Power Market Update: 01st September - 02nd October 2023

Introduction

Welcome back to our monthly gas and power market update! The period from September 1st to October 2nd, 2023, saw substantial fluctuations in both gas and electricity prices. Let's delve into the specifics.


Image to quickly show how much the market has gone up/down from last month

Monthly Gas and Power Market Update - Gas Analysis


Price Overview

  • Starting Price: 81.28 p/th (September 1st)

  • Ending Price: 90.00 p/th (October 2nd)

  • Highest Price: 112.25 p/th (September 25th)

  • Average Price for the Month: Approximately 94.68 p/th

  • Percentage Change: +10.73%

Analysis

The average gas price for the month was approximately 94.68 p/th, and the market ended higher than it started. Despite the fluctuations, the overall trend was a price increase of around 10.73%.


Key Factors Influencing Gas Prices

  1. Norwegian Maintenance: Supply disruptions led to price volatility.

  2. Weather Conditions: Mild weather reduced demand.

  3. Storage Levels: Storage levels reached 97% capacity, slowing down future injections.

 

Monthly Gas and Power Market Update - Electric Analysis


Price Overview

  • Starting Price: £84.50/MWh (September 1st)

  • Ending Price: £60.25/MWh (October 2nd)

  • Highest Price: £97.25/MWh (September 11th)

  • Average Price for the Month: Approximately £81.64/MWh

  • Percentage Change: -28.67%

Analysis

The average electricity price for the month was approximately £81.64/MWh, and the market ended lower than it started. The prices decreased by about 28.67% over the month.


Key Factors Influencing Electricity Prices

  1. Renewable Output: Increased wind energy led to price drops.

  2. Demand: Overall lower demand due to seasonal factors.

 

Market Outlook

  • Gas: Expect ongoing volatility due to supply uncertainties and winter demand.

  • Electricity: Prices likely to fluctuate based on renewable energy availability and seasonal demand.

Conclusion


The month of September saw gas prices generally increase, while electricity prices largely decreased. With several influencing factors in play, market participants should remain vigilant for ongoing volatility. Stay tuned for further updates!


graph to show wholesale market movements over the last month
 

Oil Market Analysis for September 2023

In the oil market, prices have also been volatile but generally upward trending. Brent crude started the month at an estimated $93.29 per barrel and concluded the month at $95.31 per barrel, indicating a 2.16% increase. WTI crude also showed a similar upward trend, starting at $89.68 per barrel and finishing at $90.97 per barrel, an increase of approximately 1.44%. The fluctuating prices can be attributed to a myriad of factors including production cuts by OPEC+, U.S. crude stock variations, and ongoing macroeconomic conditions, including concerns about high interest rates.


Forecast

Given the current market dynamics, including OPEC+ production cuts and rising demand as economies recover from the pandemic, oil prices may continue to trend upward. However, this outlook could be impacted by unforeseen geopolitical events or shifts in global economic indicators, such as changes in interest rates or inflation. Therefore, a cautious approach is advisable for investors and stakeholders.

 

Snapshot of wholesale market movements


image to show snapshot of wholesale market movements frm last month

Energy Market Averages

DATE

GAS (pence per therm)

ELECTRIC (£ per MWh)

Last 7 Days

99.85

81.54

Last Month

91.48

82.83

Last Year

117.48

112.80

 

Last 12 month market movements


graph to show last 12 month wholesale market movements


Conclusion

In summary, the gas, power, and oil markets are set for a fluctuating October, shaped by a range of factors including supply adjustments in Norway, seasonal weather impacts in the UK, and macroeconomic variables like interest rates. Specifically, gas and power markets have shown decreases in recent days, while oil has been more stable but with underlying volatility. Given these dynamics, market participants should remain vigilant and closely monitor these evolving situations for investment and planning purposes.

 

Understanding the energy market can be complex, but it's crucial for making informed decisions about your energy needs. That's where we come in. At The Smart Energy Company, we're committed to helping you navigate the energy market with ease. Whether you're looking to renew your energy contract or switch providers, we're here to help.


Don't miss out on potential savings and better energy deals. Get in touch with us today at 0151 459 3388 for your free energy quote. Let us help you power your future



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