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Monthly Gas and Power Market Update: 02nd October - 01st November 2023

Introduction

Welcome back to our monthly gas and power market update! The period from 02nd October to 01st November 2023, saw substantial fluctuations in both gas and electricity prices. Let's delve into the specifics.


Image to quickly show how much the market has gone up/down from last month

Energy Monthly Market Update: October 2023 - A Roller Coaster Ride


Summary:

October 2023 has been a tumultuous month for both gas and electricity prices in the UK, underpinned by a volatile mixture of market fundamentals, geopolitical tensions, and weather forecasts. The data reveals a series of peaks and troughs, highlighting the need for agile market strategies.


Key Insights:

Gas:

  1. Opening Volatility: The month opened at 83.5p/th and witnessed a rapid escalation, peaking at 138p/th on the 13th.

  2. Market Fundamentals: Strikes by LNG workers, outages in Norwegian fields, and changing wind outputs contributed to significant daily fluctuations.

  3. Geopolitical Tensions: Concerns around the Middle East and escalating conflicts also exerted upward pressure on prices.

  4. Late-Month Respite: Despite the turbulence, prices declined towards the end of the month, closing at 100p/th on 31st October, bringing us to an opening of 100p/th for November.

Electricity:

  1. Initial Stability: Electricity prices opened the month at around £67/MWh.

  2. Mid-Month Spike: A sudden spike occurred around mid-October, with prices reaching a staggering £134/MWh on the 13th.

  3. Subsequent Decline: This was followed by a decline, albeit a volatile one, towards the end of the month, closing at £76.50/MWh on 31st October. The market opened at £68.75/MWh for November.

Energy Market Forecast: November 2023 - What Lies Ahead?


Summary:

After a tumultuous October, businesses and consumers alike are wondering what November will bring. While it's difficult to predict the future with absolute certainty, the trends we've seen so far offer some insights. Brace yourselves for another potentially volatile month ahead.


Key Forecasts:

Gas:

  1. Continued Volatility: Given the fluctuations seen in October, we expect November to remain volatile. Prices may oscillate between 90-140p/th, depending on unforeseen geopolitical events and weather conditions.

  2. Winter Demand: As winter approaches, increased domestic heating demand could exert upward pressure on gas prices.

  3. Supply Concerns: If strikes by LNG workers continue or if there are additional outages in gas fields, this could further tighten supply and raise prices.

Electricity:

  1. Seasonal Increases: As colder weather settles in, electricity demand for heating could escalate, potentially leading to price increases.

  2. Renewable Variability: Wind and solar outputs will have their usual impact. Lower outputs could push prices upward, while higher outputs may stabilise or even reduce prices.

  3. Interconnected Factors: Gas prices also impact electricity costs. If gas prices soar, this could create a knock-on effect on electricity prices.

Summary:

Given these potential influencers, November 2023 could be another month of significant market fluctuations. For businesses, this underlines the importance of staying agile and informed. Market conditions will likely remain influenced by a host of unpredictable factors, including weather patterns, geopolitical events, and supply and demand mechanics.

 
graph to show the wholesale market movements in the last month
 

Oil Market Summary for October 2023


The crude oil and carbon markets have shown considerable volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and various economic indicators from the U.S. and Europe. While crude oil prices have fluctuated widely due to events in Israel and Palestine, carbon prices have generally declined, impacted by weak economic data in the Euro zone and Britain. Both markets are sentiment-driven and highly responsive to global news cycles.


Forecast for the Upcoming Month


In the coming month, expect heightened volatility in both crude oil and carbon markets. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could further escalate, driving crude prices up. Economic indicators from Europe and the U.S. Federal Reserve decisions will continue to influence carbon prices. Keep a close eye on developments in these areas, as they are likely to shape market trends in the short term.

 

Snapshot of wholesale market movements


Snapshot of the wholesale market movements from last month and year

Energy Market Averages

DATE

GAS (pence per therm)

ELECTRIC (£ per MWh)

Last 7 Days

115.13

88.92

Last Month

106.36

87.35

Last Year

117.32

119.93

 

Last 12 month market movements


graph to show the wholesale market movements over the last 12 months
 

Understanding the energy market can be complex, but it's crucial for making informed decisions about your energy needs. That's where we come in. At The Smart Energy Company, we're committed to helping you navigate the energy market with ease. Whether you're looking to renew your energy contract or switch providers, we're here to help.


Don't miss out on potential savings and better energy deals. Get in touch with us today at 0151 459 3388 for your free energy quote. Let us help you power your future



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