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March 2022 - Monthly Wholesale Market Update

Today, the Gas market has increased by 44.63% than this time last month with the electric market also up by 50.15%

As the battle continues, the energy industry is shaken by instability and unrest. As Monday's market absorbs the shockwaves caused over the weekend, some of Friday's losses are retraced, with NBP month ahead up 21.44p/th [9.5%] and the power equivalent up £12.55/MWh [6.1%]. On balance, since the conflict began, monthly gas costs have increased by 30% and power costs have increased by 22%. While some risk has faded further down the curve, gains have remained strong, with the annualised Apr-22 NBP up 23% in the last three sessions and power up 14%.

Following in the footsteps of BP and Equinor, Shell has stated that it is abandoning its relationship with Gazprom, including its 27.5 percent ownership in a major LNG facility and participation in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which it helped finance.

Yesterday's diplomatic talks appeared to be dead in the water, with bombardment continuing and a 40-mile Russian convoy allegedly forming outside of Kyiv. The market opens cautiously today, with S-22 NBP rising 2.76p/th [1.163 percent] but little else moving as traders examine their options. Prices may remain constant or gain small ground today if there is no further rise.

In other headlines, Germany intends to impose mandatory gas storage fill levels of up to 90% commencing in the winter of 2022/23, with storage to be at 80% by October 1st. Penalties may be imposed on retailers that fail to meet their duties. It would be interesting to observe how this affects pricing in the future; if there is a rush to fill contracts to meet the compliance deadline, this could push up October contracts, which could have ramifications beyond German markets. In the summer, we should expect to witness more vigorous filling.

Carbon is down nearly a euro [1.24%] in early trade, with significant trading volume maintaining the bearish trend, which has been down 7% for the entire month of February. Brent, on the other hand, has pierced the $100/bbl. ceiling and looks certain to close above this critical resistance level — up over $4/bbl. [4%] at the time of writing. As pressure increases for Europe to separate itself from Russian gas reliance, both LNG and European coal saw large gains in yesterday's session, with both commodities up over 20%.

How the market is averaging out

Date Electric (£/MWh) Gas (p/therm)

Last 7 days 213.00 234.84

Last Month 176.78 194.74

Last Year 146.11 140.70

The below shows how the market compares to the previous month and year.

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