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July 2023 - Review of Gas & Power Markets: Fluctuations and Volatility Prevail


wholesale movements

Review of Gas & Power Markets from 01/06/2023 - 30/06/2023


In this post, we provide a review of the Gas & Power markets, focusing on the fluctuations and volatility observed throughout the month of June 2023. We analyse the factors influencing gas and power prices, including supply disruptions, outages, changes in demand, and the impact of renewables generation. By examining the market dynamics, we aim to provide insights into the overall performance and direction of these markets during the review period. So, join us as we delve into the intricacies of the Gas & Power markets in this comprehensive review.


Gas Market:

  1. The UK wholesale gas market experienced significant price volatility throughout the month, driven by various factors including supply disruptions, outages, and changes in demand.

  2. Prices fluctuated due to the impact of unplanned outages, such as the Hammerfest LNG plant in Norway, which caused bullish pressures and led to price increases.

  3. However, prices later reversed as market sentiment shifted, driven by factors like high storage levels, muted demand, and maintenance activities in Norwegian gas facilities.

  4. The market showed slight corrections and fluctuations as investors weighed LNG flows, demand levels, and technical corrections.

  5. Overall, the gas market displayed a mixed and volatile pattern, with no clear consistent directional trend over the month.

Power Market:

  1. The power market mirrored the volatility seen in the gas market, with prices influenced by changes in gas prices, renewable generation, supply dynamics, and demand patterns.

  2. Prices were driven by factors such as gas price fluctuations, wind generation levels, and the need for fossil fuel generation to meet demand.

  3. The power market experienced corrections and fluctuations as investors assessed factors such as supply disruptions, reduced renewables output, and carbon allowances.

  4. Overall, the power market also lacked a specific consistent directional trend, with prices responding to short-term factors and supply-demand dynamics.

In summary, both the Gas and Power markets showed volatility and slight corrections over the past month. Factors such as supply disruptions, outage durations, changes in demand, and the influence of renewables generation impacted prices. While specific events and outages caused short-term price fluctuations, the overall direction of the markets remained mixed with no clear trend emerging during the period. It is important to closely monitor supply levels, demand dynamics, and geopolitical developments moving forward to better anticipate future market direction.


Oil Markets


Overall, the oil market has displayed mixed and volatile movements over the past month, reflecting a range of factors influencing supply, demand, and market sentiment. Brent crude prices have experienced various ups and downs, but have generally remained within a range of $71 to $78 per barrel.


Factors that have affected market dynamics include concerns over low global demand, economic slowdowns in China, geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and decisions and statements from major oil-producing countries.


Throughout the month, the market has responded to news on OPEC+ production cuts, with Saudi Arabia announcing additional output reductions. These cuts have often provided support to oil prices, indicating a collective effort to balance supply and demand.


The fluctuating strength of the US dollar has influenced oil prices, making the commodity more expensive or affordable for overseas buyers. The value of the dollar has impacted oil prices inversely, as a stronger dollar can weigh on demand and vice versa.


Investors have closely monitored developments related to the US debt ceiling, as concerns over a potential US default have periodically impacted market sentiment. The passing of a debt ceiling deal in the House of Representatives has provided some relief and support to oil prices.


Global equities have shown mixed performance during this period, with certain positive developments, such as debt ceiling resolutions, supporting markets at times. However, concerns over interest rate hikes by central banks have occasionally added downward pressure.


In summary, the oil market has experienced volatility but has generally moved within a specific price range. Concerns about demand, geopolitical unrest, OPEC+ decisions, and the strength of the US dollar have influenced overall market sentiment, resulting in mixed and fluctuating price movements


Snapshot of wholesale market movements

snapshot of movements

How the market is averaging out

DATE

GAS (pence per therm)

ELECTRIC (£ per MWh)

Last 7 Days

87.28

88.20

Last Month

81.47

87.05

Last Year

172.71

181.73

Last 12 month market movements


12 month wholesale market movements

Forecast of the Gas & Power Markets for the Upcoming Month:

  1. Gas Market: Gas prices are expected to remain volatile in the upcoming month, influenced by supply disruptions and changes in demand. Fluctuations may occur as market participants evaluate the impact of maintenance activities and supply dynamics. However, high storage levels and muted demand may exert downward pressure on prices.

  2. Power Market: Power prices are anticipated to be influenced by factors such as gas prices, renewables generation, and weather conditions. Volatility may arise due to changing supply-demand dynamics. Continued reliance on renewables and the need for fossil fuel generation to meet demand will shape power prices in the coming month.

Overall, the gas and power markets are likely to experience ongoing fluctuations and volatility in the upcoming month. Monitoring supply disruptions, demand patterns, weather conditions, geopolitical developments, and European energy policies will be crucial in understanding the market dynamics and anticipating price movements.


 

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