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April 2022 - Monthly Wholesale Market Update

Today, the Gas market has increased by 11.47% than this time last month with the electric market also up by 14.02%.

The UK energy market gained for the third day in a row on Wednesday, with both electricity and gas products touching their 20-day moving average. Front-month NBP increased by 19.77p/th (7.5%), Baseload increased by £12.95/MWh (5.6%), and annualised gas and electric prices increased by 22.70p/th (8.5%) and £14.10 (6.1%), respectively. The prospect of Russia just shutting off exports looms as the G7 and the rest of the EU present a united front that it will not cave in to Russia's demands to pay in roubles.

The market will be watching Russia's response to Putin's 'deadline' for the transition to roubles today. Gazprom has never broken international standards by unilaterally altering contract conditions, not even during the Cold War. It's probable that Russia may explain that present contracts will continue to be in euro/dollar terms, but that future contracts will be in rouble terms. This appears to be the least painful solution for all parties... However, this may not be the Kremlin's main goal. As part of its Gas Emergency Plan, Germany has previously announced that it is willing to ration energy supplies rather than pay in roubles.

The Dutch TTF opens lower than the previous day's closing, but then rises to a 0.56 percent premium. The UK market has failed to reflect these gains, with Q3-22 being offered at 30p/th over the close but little activity to back it up. Today, markets will be watching for a response from the Kremlin with bated breath.

In the larger fuels mix, there are certain gloomy indicators for the energy market. Despite a reliable morning doji star candlestick pattern appearing on yesterday's close, Brent loses $4.30/bbl [3.77 percent] and falls below $110/bbl (potentially leaving some room for a bullish reversal later today.) Carbon, on the other hand, is testing the €80/MT target once more, rising €1.43/MT (1.83%) to €79.74/MT. Due to exchange costs, volatility, and a paralysing sense of uncertainty, actual volume traded for carbon has dropped, with investors shifting to more'solid' investments. However, the EU ETS compliance deadline of 30 April is approaching, which could give some help this month.

How the market is averaging out

Date Electric (£/MWh) Gas (p/therm)

Last 7 days 229.35 272.86

Last Month 255.82 304.77

Last Year 164.06 164.55

The below shows how the market compares to the previous month and year.

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