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25/07/2022 - Weekly Wholesale Market Update

This morning, the Electric wholesale (Day Ahead) prices have opened up 0.04% lower than this time last week with Gas (Day Ahead) increasing by 62.65%.

Another erratic, unsettling week for markets. After mounting worries that Nord Stream 1 wouldn't be restarting after a ten-day maintenance hiatus, flows restarted on Thursday at pre-maintenance levels. Despite higher flows, supply issues continue to plague the market; even if NS1 flows at a capacity of about 40%, which is still better than 0, it is unlikely that the EU will meet its mandatory storage targets of being 80 percent full by the end of October.

Prices are supported by the perception that the pipeline could be cut off at any time. The next significant event that the market will be closely watching is the ongoing turmoil surrounding a turbine that is needed to fix NS1. There are concerns about the turbine's quality, how long it will take to install, and its location on the planet. The reports from both the European and Russian sides are contradictory and ambiguous. In addition to stating that they are under no obligation to purchase the turbine, Gazprom emphasised that they have not received any official papers required to buy the part. Despite earlier reports on Friday claiming that the turbine had "successfully left Germany," Siemens has stated that they have now turned over the paperwork, and there are some rumours that the turbine missed a ship from Germany to Helsinki on Saturday.

According to some theories, the turbine might not significantly improve gas supplies via NS1 because the compressor station still needs to repair a number of units. According to some German analysts, politics rather than physical factors are to blame for the flow limits.

Volatility has not subsided despite all of this back and forth in the market. Electricity costs increased by 25% within the same time period, while front-month gas prices increased by 50% week over week. Gains were muted but not negligible further down the curve - Oct-22 Annualised gas up 2.25 percent and Oct-22 Annualised electricity up 6.79 percent.

Dutch-TTF gains 3 percent, while carbon and crude both experience little declines (around 0.33 percent each). EU storage levels are approximately 66% full, and LNG storage capacity is approximately 62% full. Markets will once again try to interpret the runes of war this week, with some bearish potential if flows through NS1 remain steady and the turbine is properly delivered.

How the market has opened each day:

Date Electric (£/MWh) Gas (p/therm)

18/07/2022 250.10 166.00

19/07/2022 242.50 184.00

20/07/2022 340.10 246.10

21/07/2022 290.10 279.10

22/07/2022 248.10 274.10

25/07/2022 250.00 270.00

7 day averages

Electric (£ per MWh) 270.15

Gas (pence per therm) 236.55

The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.

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