This morning, the Electric wholesale (Day Ahead) prices have opened up 20.34% Higher than this time last week with Gas (Day Ahead) increasing by 25.10%.
Large discounts were seen along the UK energy curves on Friday, with losses on the near term indicating a reduction in geopolitical risk. The prompt wrangles its own fundamentals with weather and infrastructure impacts, but we've seen downward pressure on annuals again, which is excellent news for businesses that utilise energy.
NBP month ahead fell sharply, marking the second straight day of discounts of more than 12%. The wider fuel mix was uneven, with support declining as the UK and Europe's emissions trading programmes faded, but coal and LNG as fossil fuel sources grew.
Temperatures are expected to return to seasonal norms this week, but improving renewable generation outlooks may limit immediate improvements. With UK markets reluctant to resume following volatile days last week, the Dutch gas benchmark, front month TTF, declines, trading €3/MWh [3.6 percent] down, while German base Jun-22 loses €5/MWh [2.6 percent].
W-22 is important for budgeting, keeping season value, and shedding after those around it have stepped down. The NBP and UK power base are being offered at roughly 1.75 percent lower, which is a bullish indicator.
Longer-dated seasons have maintained their elevated positions relative to earlier in the year, gaining faster than the riskier first winter W-23, which recently provided £7/MW [3%].
Brent has settled around $110/bbl and is currently 50 cents [0.5 percent] higher on the close, with EUAs erasing earlier gains to step down €0.4/Mt [0.4 percent], hovering around the 80 level. Many estimates point to 90 as a key level, with further gains possible beyond that.
How the market has opened each day:
Date Electric (£/MWh) Gas (p/therm)
16/05/2022 116.00 100.00
17/05/2022 118.60 93.10
18/05/2022 123.00 100.10
19/05/2022 117.00 101.00
20/05/2022 175.00 107.00
23/05/2022 139.60 125.10
7 day averages
Electric (£ per MWh) 131.53
Gas (pence per therm) 104.38
The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.
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