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21/03/2022 - Weekly Wholesale Market Update

This morning, the Electric wholesale prices have opened up 17.58% lower than this time last week with Gas decreasing by 9.96%.

As Russian advances in Ukraine slowed, peace talks appeared to be developing, and gas flows into the EU remained unchanged, commodities had a gloomy week. Following the previous week's trend, gas was more susceptible to price changes than power, with month ahead contracts losing 21% of their value and the power counterpart losing over 15%. When it comes to seasons, W-22 is still cheaper than S-22, but summer contract losses were proportionately bigger this week. Apr-22 gas fell by 17% on an annualised basis, while the power equivalent fell by 13%. Energy prices, crucially, remain extremely high, with rates lingering around levels last seen at the beginning of March.

The wider fuels mix, which is affected by the same factors as the energy market, was largely pessimistic. With China's lockdowns and larger-than-expected buildup in US crude stockpiles, Brent fell 4% and WTI fell 5.7 percent (although both commodities closed the week safely above $100/bbl.).

Despite the fact that Germany agreed to short-term LNG deals with Qatar and received approval for fast-tracks in new terminals, European LNG prices fell 8% week on week, falling alongside gas prices. Due to high LNG prices, customers have turned to cheaper domestic coal, with demand in China dropping 12 percent year over year in February. Australia has given Shell permission to resume its 3.6 million tonne Prelude LNG station following an outage in December, in the hopes of adding to the supply mix later this year.

High gas prices and Russian sanctions have pushed up global coal prices. Despite the energy complex's overall negative trend, European coal prices rose by 21% week on week. Due to embargoes on Russian coal exports, a significant imbalance is projected over the next 1-2 years, with present prices compounded by risk premiums.

Despite being unable to sustain pace above €80/MT, European Carbon remained rangebound during the week, rising 3%. With compliance deadlines looming at the end of April, more volatility is likely, and a breakout over this important resistance level is possible. The UK ETS performed better, trading comfortably above £80/MT and up 6.5% week on week.

How the market has opened each day:

Date Electric (£/MWh) Gas (p/therm)

14/03/2022 236.00 261.00

15/03/2022 235.00 270.58

16/03/2022 225.00 239.50

17/03/2022 209.50 240.00

18/03/2022 227.00 240.00

21/03/2022 194.50 235.00

7 day averages

Electric (£ per MWh) 221.17

Gas (pence per therm) 247.68

The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.

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