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20/09/2022 - Weekly Wholesale Market Update

Updated: May 2, 2023

This morning, the Electric wholesale (Day Ahead) prices have opened up 24.71% lower than this time last week with Gas (Day Ahead) 30.59% lower.


In anticipation of the long weekend, contracts weakened on Friday. The final Oct-12m pricing for NBP and baseload decreased by almost 11% and 8%, respectively. While losses partially erased last week's multi-session gains, Oct-12m contracts were trading at levels similar to those of last Wednesday.


With Finland stating that it is planning for controlled blackouts this winter, Norway has brashly finalised a regularly mechanism that might limit electricity exports starting the new year. As a result of China lifting its multi-week-long lockdown on the province of Chengdu, Brent firmed 0.63% to $92.57/bbl at the time of writing, with a potential bullish spillover as China's demand picks up. Last month, China alone spent a record £7.3 billion on Russian energy, taking advantage of lower prices as the Kremlin took the place of European consumers. The nation's imports of coal also increased as a result of rising electricity demand brought on by heatwaves.


In the world of carbon trading, the EU is considering auctioning into the MSR over the course of the next 18 months rather than over a four-year period. This move is expected to bring in about €20 billion, but it will also put more downward pressure on the commodity as new supplies will inevitably meet demand. While this is happening, the UK government increased the price cap for its own carbon trading scheme by £8.45/t to £149.86/t, or 6% monthly. The mechanism may cause an increase in the supply of permits or a redistribution of allowances if prices reach this cap. UK Carbon is now trading at roughly £71.1/t, with a peak of £98/t in mid-August.


Dutch TTF is currently down 2.95%, while Oct. 22 NBP is also down 1.3%. The UK is waiting to see if the government will provide further information on the energy assistance programme for businesses or if it will be necessary to wait until November. The market is in a much better position than it was a few months ago, with no unscheduled outages currently occurring and storage levels across the EU at 86%, though the situation is still precarious as the winter season approaches.


How the market has opened each day:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

13/09/2022

360.20

340.00

14/09/2022

385.00

315.00

15/09/2022

350.00

295.00

16/09/2022

225.00

260.00

20/09/2022

250.00

256.00


7 day averages


Electric (£ per MWh) 293.20

Gas (pence per therm) 314.04


The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.





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