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19/04/2022 - Weekly Wholesale Market Update

This morning, the Electric wholesale prices have opened up 22.48% lower than this time last week with Gas decreasing by 35.03%.

With the market closed for the long Easter holiday on Friday and Monday, today's market will be digesting the events of the previous four days and is likely to be turbulent. Similarly, Thursday's session ended with significant swings, with front-month Baseload losing £18.20/MWh [9.5 percent] for the 11th session in a row, while the NBP equivalent was discounted by 35.81p/th [16.8%]. Breaking with recent trends, losses were recorded even lower down the curve, with the annualised NBP down 17.57p/th [7.8%] and the Baseload equivalent down £9.45/MWh [4.8 percent].

Prices have not yet returned to normal levels as a result of the downward pressure: front-month futures are approaching pre-war levels, but annualised contracts are still trading in a record range. Nonetheless, the market is leaning on some gloomy indications and optimism – Chinese LNG imports fell 32% year over year in March, which could indicate decreased worldwide demand for the product, potentially resulting in an LNG oversupply to Europe's benefit during the summer. The IEA also predicts a 6% decline in European gas demand this year, with demand in Italy's industrial sector already down 10% - bad news for economies, but good news for a tight supply-demand matrix.

As Russian flows remain virtually steady, Norway's march exports, which set an all-time high of 10.2 billion cubic metres, serve to relieve tensions. Both Brent and Carbon fell in the morning session, though Brent recovered some of its losses as Shanghai prepared to reopen after a tight lockdown and Libyan deliveries from its largest oil field are halted due to political unrest. Although there is sluggish trading on the UK market this morning as traders re-orient following a four-day break, the Dutch TTF front-month is up 3.61 percent, and UK prices could reverse some of Thursday's big losses.

How the market has opened each day:

Date Electric (£/MWh) Gas (p/therm)

12/04/2022 209.10 254.10

13/04/2022 192.60 190.10

14/04/2022 176.50 141.00

15/04/2022 176.50 141.00

18/04/2022 176.50 141.00

19/04/2022 162.10 165.10

7 day averages

Electric (£ per MWh) 182.22

Gas (pence per therm) 172.05

The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.

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