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16/05/2022 - Weekly Wholesale Market Update

This morning, the Electric wholesale (Day Ahead) prices have opened up 43.02% Higher than this time last week with Gas (Day Ahead) increasing by 115.91%.

Weekly Report

On Day Ahead pricing, UK energy experienced a stronger conclusion to the week, with the lowering temperature and renewable generating estimates adding premiums to the cost of gas and, thus, electricity.

However, since European gas and power prices fell, all other contracts from next month to year lost value. It's good news that Germany hopes to reduce sanctions by making payments in euros before converting the currency, which will keep Russia's gasoline flowing. Other countries' announcements that they now have energy measures in place that remove them from Russian reliance lessens danger as well.

The larger fuels complex, which includes crude oil, coal, and LNG, has been losing ground week after week: last week had a bearish start and close, but hump day advances made it look like we were getting more costly at one point. The integrally connected emissions trading systems (Euro and UK carbon permits) both lost value at the lower close.

This week, Week20, sees a drop in renewable generation from Monday to Wednesday, which is also when the weather begins to chill. A few LNG ships should dock on our beaches this week, but any unanticipated interruptions to UK and Norwegian gas/oil infrastructure on the North Sea continental shelves, as well as the inevitable geopolitical Ukraine-conflict rope-a-dope, might see risk margins return to pricing.

Daily Report

While the fuels mix ended the week lower than Week19, crude oils and euro-carbon were supported on Friday when the EIA Gov't released US oil inventory data showed an 8 million barrel increase against a 0.5 million barrel reduction! This lack of demand contrasts with the fact that US gasoline and natgas prices are at multi-year highs!

In Europe, demand for dirty burn coal has dropped recently, but it remains near inflated levels because it was viewed as a potential alternative to gas while Russian supplies were rightfully reviled. We were stripped of $12/Mt [4.9 percent] to get to 4232.25/Mt.

Colder temperatures and lower renewables aided the prompt, while front-month discounts were seen on Friday (NBP down 27.1p/th [15.4 percent]). As a result, everything from seasons to annuals was losing 5%. The fact that some of the artificial gains on S-23 came away more than near winter moves was particularly pleasing.

Despite an unanticipated outage at Kollsnes due to compressor failure, the Dutch TTF is down €4.38 [4.5 percent] after opening flat. The NBP equivalent appears to be falling. In Germany, the applicable power contract is trading 3% lower, and MA trading is currently limited due to France's nuclear curtailments.

W-22 is already showing signs of weakness, with a 3p/th [1.2 percent] loss on the NBP and an implied offer of 3.5 percent below the close on UK BSLD.

Global economic fears, sparked by disappointing Chinese retail data, partly due to the lockdown, and falling European markets, imperil fuel demand and oil forecasts. Even after a slightly better open, Brent is trading at a discount, but EUAs add marginal value, and ubt remains well below the 90 mark.

How the market has opened each day:

Date Electric (£/MWh) Gas (p/therm)

09/05/2022 86.00 44.00

10/05/2022 70.00 60.00

11/05/2022 76.00 47.00

12/05/2022 82.10 62.10

13/05/2022 100.10 60.10

16/05/2022 123.00 95.00

7 day averages

Electric (£ per MWh) 89.53

Gas (pence per therm) 61.37

The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.

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