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09/05/2022 - Weekly Wholesale Market Update

This morning, the Electric wholesale (Day Ahead) prices have opened up 36.59% lower than this time last week with Gas (Day Ahead) decreasing by 45.42%. For the first time in a good while, Gas wholesale prices are down on the previous week, month and year!

Weekly Update

Friday's sell-off ended the short holiday week with daily losses but weekly gains in the overall fuels mix.

Increases in fossil fuels pushed emissions trading schemes higher, and Chinese shutdown cases were insufficient to weigh on global commodities. UK carbon contributed £8.05/Mt [9.97%] to a new record high of £88.8/Mt, and ETS €7.09/Mt [8.4 percent] to break past the '90' threshold, with weekly gains of 16 percent on European coal, 5 percent on both Brent crude oil and small LNG returns.

Aside from the quick swings, UK energy experienced a relatively turbulent week, with just minor gains over the previous week. Given the crisis, the rouble'discussions, and the halting of Polish and Bulgarian gas flows, the bears have done fairly well.

This week begins with Victory Day in Red Square, with Putin blaming the West for the Ukrainian conflict and declaring that his forces are "defending the country," while the Russian oil embargo and alternative energy contracts are at the top of the energy priority list.

Currently signs are flat to bearish, European gas, oil and carbon starting the week softer; but risk will always remain with energy a pawn in the conflict, sorry, “special military operation”.

Daily Report

Coal and LNG lost value in a single day on Friday, as gas and electricity prices in the UK and Europe decreased, relieving generation demands on fossil fuels.

The biggest discounts were on front month, with the NBP falling sharply; weakness spreading into winter, and hence annuals, which fall to their moving average. Gains along the power curve were limited as the comparable base barely rebounded somewhat from the upper band's resistance.

OPEC+ appears to be keen to maintain stability in the face of a possible boycott of Russian oil, but additional output through June 22 is more than welcome. The US NOPEC bill, which might result in a lawsuit against OPEC for antitrust and market manipulation, could also cause supply disruption. As we move back up through 90 by a long way, carbon follows crude higher - see table!

At the time of writing, UK gas demand and supplies are in balance, with improving wind throughout the day and stable above-average temperatures; however, gas day demand is over 20mcm higher than seasonal norms. Flows into Easington and LNG withdrawals from Dragon are both declining day by day.

Combined renewables (42%) and CCGT (41%) now produce similar levels of generation, with renewables expected to grow to roughly 15GW for the evening peak. WD NBP increases by 11.8p/th (24.48 percent), followed by Da and BoW. However, temperatures and renewable generation begin to decline by mid-week and into Thursday.

The Dutch TTF is currently trading at €97.225/MWh, down €4.48 [4.4 percent] from the previous close. All offers across gas and power curves suggest possible weakness once again, with support gone as benchmark crudes ($1 [1%]) and carbon ($3.20/bbl. [3.5 percent]) slide away at the time of writing.

How the market has opened each day:

Date Electric (£/MWh) Gas (p/therm)

03/05/2022 165.60 119.10

04/05/2022 165.10 117.50

05/05/2022 141.60 103.30

06/05/2022 105.10 63.10

09/05/2022 105.00 65.00

7 day averages

Electric (£ per MWh) 136.48

Gas (pence per therm) 93.60

The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.

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