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04/07/2022 - Weekly Wholesale Market Update

Updated: Jul 5, 2022

This morning, the Electric wholesale (Day Ahead) prices have opened up 49.03% higher than this time last week with Gas (Day Ahead) increasing by 48.45%.

In a thesaurus, the term "global energy industry" is included as a synonym for the word "chaotic." Chaos used to connote surprise to me; an unplanned change. Things are now generally in a state of chaos; it's starting to feel like business as usual. There was no exception last week.

The G7 convened to discuss a potential cap on oil prices, which is a bold and possibly impractical policy should important producers and consumers (particularly India and China) not be engaged. It also cannot be expected to succeed without inciting a reaction from Russia. US LNG tankers that travelled over 3,000 miles across the Atlantic and were longer than the Eiffel Tower provided more gas to Europe than Russian gas that was piped in. Over the last six months, the amount of gas that Gazprom exported to Europe has decreased by 31%. Fears of escalation over Lithuania's ban on exports from Kaliningrad went hand in hand with worries about the western economy contracting in response to anticipated energy shortages this winter.

All aspects of UK energy prices were up, with front-month NBP up 42% and Baseload up 22.6% as a result of Moscow restricting flows into Germany in retribution for arming Ukraine. Further down the curve, Baseload increased by 12% while annualised gas costs rose by 13%. Dutch TTF goes up 2.26 percent and UK NBP W-22 surges above 400p/th this morning, supporting this week's early trade with strong momentum.

As Norwegian oil and gas employees get ready for a strike, 292,000 bbl of oil equivalent could be removed from the system starting on Wednesday, which would reduce the country's exports by 13%. Heatwaves, while welcomed by vacationers, are projected to put pressure on an already constrained gas supply as temperatures rise toward the end of this week and into the beginning of the following.

How the market has opened each day:

Date Electric (£/MWh) Gas (p/therm)

27/06/2022 155.00 145.00

28/06/2022 206.50 168.90

29/06/2022 259.00 164.00

30/06/2022 212.00 152.00

01/07/2022 175.00 167.00

04/07/2022 230.10 216.10

7 day averages

Electric (£ per MWh) 206.27

Gas (pence per therm) 168.83

The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.

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