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03/10/2022 - Weekly Wholesale Market Update

Updated: May 2, 2023

This morning, the Electric wholesale (Day Ahead) prices have opened up 13.57% lower than this time last week with Gas (Day Ahead) 9.21% lower.


Energy markets remain unstable, with prices fluctuating last week after what appeared to be deliberate "sabotage" of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which led to the discovery of four ruptures that resulted in a 1 km wide gas leak, possibly the largest single-event man-made methane emission. Following Russia's annexation of four occupied areas, geopolitical tension increased. In response, Putin delivered a scathing speech in which he laid the responsibility squarely at the feet of the entire West, accusing the US of setting a "precedent" for its use of nuclear weapons in World War 2. The new UK government's small budget was followed by a sour chaser that nearly caused the collapse of gilts and the pound, had the BoE not stepped in to buy over £65 billion worth of bonds.


Last week, Oct-12m gas fell 6.81%, while Power fell 2.82%. However, the wider fuel mix improved overall, with Carbon rising 1.5%, LNG increasing by 4%, and Coal increasing by 1.15%. As of right moment, Russia has stopped all gas imports into Italy and has threatened to reduce its remaining deliveries via Ukraine. Dutch TTF gains 0.60% this morning despite the UJK market's lack of liquidity as we transition from an October to an April front-season, while Brent gains 4.3% due to OPEC+'s production cut announcement.


As a substitute for the suggested wholesale gas price cap, discussions are currently taking place in Europe to divorce the gas market from the Dutch TTF. Although technical challenges make the move politicised and hazardous, 15 member states support a cap. Energy security is the main worry because it would hurt the EU's capacity to compete on the global market. In addition, the Commission prefers a "price corridor" over a straightforward cap.


What the EU did agree on Friday was a cap on revenues and a mandatory gas saving target for periods of peak consumption.


To the satisfaction of the UK, Norway also decided on Friday that it would not impose any restrictions on power exports to its neighbours but would instead implement a programme that rewards users for reducing their energy use when the supply is low. That choice was eliminated due to the political repercussions of export restrictions as well as the risk to energy security when Norway experiences periods of low supply and is forced to rely on its neighbours. However, the TSO is considering adopting legislation that would allow it to impose export restrictions at the beginning of 2019.


In related news, Denmark is moving to reopen coal and oil-fired power plants, Estonia is considering setting up its own floating LNG terminal, and there are numerous rumours that the UK government is considering abandoning its own Net Zero goals after King Charles was 'ordered' by the prime minister not to attend Cop27.



How the market has opened each day:

DAY AHEAD PRICES

Gas (pence per therm)

Electric (£ per MWh)

26/09/2022

190.00

199.00

27/09/2022

188.00

210.00

28/09/2022

230.00

282.00

29/09/2022

185.00

185.00

30/09/2022

180.00

235.00

01/10/2022

172.50

172.00


7 day averages


Electric (£ per MWh) 213.83

Gas (pence per therm) 190.92


The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.





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