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04/05/2022 - Weekly Wholesale Market Update

This morning, the Electric wholesale prices have opened up 3.72% lower than this time last week with Gas decreasing by 1.37%.

After three days of losses, the UK month ahead regained some ground yesterday.

As the EU mulls the repercussions of sanctions on Russian oil and the assumption that Russian missiles damaged three power plants in Lviv, Ukraine, late Tuesday, many prices switched from a dismal start to minor increases. Will Putin retaliate with gas shutoffs? ...

After continuing to slide from a lower open, the Dutch TTF flipped mid-morning, up to the 100€ mark at one point, before falling away at the end of the European session. The near-term strength did not flow to the curve, which remains in backwardation for European and UK contracts.

Annuals have been bearish for three trading days in a row, and NBP has joined UK BSLD in falling below the psychological 200 threshold. We see these prices in a clear downturn, with Bollinger Bands converging on the moving average, as the new front season moves away from dangerous S-22. This shows that from April 1st, we've been running in a c.£20/MW range in power, with a slightly broader range in gas.

Even after Putin cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria last week, prices have been falling. From May 1st, Lithuania will be exporting 20GWh/d to Poland via a newly operating interconnector.

Carbon rose while benchmark oil fell – see table – but all attention were on European coal as possible gas shortages (Russia weaponizing shortages...) saw the API" coal surge $8.25/Mt [3.9 percent], erasing many of the day's larger losses.

The danger of self-enforced Russian gas embargoes on "unfriendly friends" has pushed markets higher today, Wednesday.

Crude oil benchmarks are firming, poised to fill any gaps left by the Urals; up $3.40/bl. [3.3 percent]. The API reported inventory declines yesterday, while the EIA predicted smaller drops but still an indication of rising demand. This is crucial in light of Shanghai lockdowns and China's rejection of US LNG as a result of lower demand.

The front-month TTF is currently trading 5.5 percent higher at €104.8/MW, having gapped higher inside the day.

Across the NBP and BSLD curves, the UK lays its stall out with offers far above the close, with W-22 now absorbing the brunt of the price action, transacting 16.625p/th [7.2 percent] higher.

Despite the fact that UK energy prices have been steadily down, risk will continue to underpin all price levels as the battle continues. In the end, Russia has weaponized energy, but the EU is ready to engage. In truth, the continent's diverse energy policies required this terrible battle.

How the market has opened each day:

Date Electric (£/MWh) Gas (p/therm)

25/04/2022 159.50 144.00

26/04/2022 172.00 142.00

27/04/2022 198.00 120.00

28/04/2022 165.50 115.00

29/04/2022 145.00 103.00

03/05/2022 165.60 140.10

7 day averages

Electric (£ per MWh) 167.77

Gas (pence per therm) 127.35

The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.

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